Its Official: Recession Ended June 2009

From the B.I.G.

The NBER has officially dated the end of the Great Recession June 2009:

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.


The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date. .......(This report is also available as a PDF file)

Real GDP

Industrial Production

Real Income

Retail sales

Employment (NFP)

Note the last chart — NFP — it goes back to 2000 instead of 2004. The NBER may have jumped the gun when they declared the recession over in November 2001; Employment did not bottom for another 2 full years!


The charts are from the nice folk at Economagic, who need to adjust their recession dating.

Source:

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Announces Trough Date
Business Cycle Dating Committee
National Bureau of Economic Research, September 20, 2010
http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

致富會所／正面思考 路更寬

從小到大當我們遇到各式各樣的難處，肯定有人安慰過你「塞翁失馬，焉知非福」。任何事都有一體兩面，只是往往身在其中看不清；工作生活遇到不如意時，常身不由己地陷入負面思考的惡性循環。這就是人性。

如果自己不夠正面，上帝還給我們安排了朋友，選擇樂觀的朋友，在我們悲觀的時候可以拉自己一把。正面的朋友像太陽，所到之處永遠是溫暖光亮；負面的人像月亮，陰晴圓缺不一樣。

最近看到一篇小故事，說到有位秀才第三次進京趕考，住在一個經常住的店裏。考試前兩天他做了三個夢， 第一個夢是自己在牆上種白菜；第二個夢是下雨天，他戴了斗笠還打傘；第三個夢是跟心愛的表妹脫光了衣服躺在一起，但是背靠著背。

這三個夢似乎有些深意，秀才第二天就趕緊去找算命的解夢。算命的一聽，連拍大腿 說：「你還是回家吧！你想想，高牆上種菜不是白費勁嗎？戴斗笠打雨傘不是多此一舉嗎？跟表妹都脫光了躺在一張床上了，卻背靠背，不是沒戲嗎？」秀才一聽，心灰意冷，回店收拾包袱準備回家。

店老闆覺得非常奇怪，問：「不是明天才考試嗎，怎麼你今天就回鄉了？」秀才如此這般說了一番，店老闆樂了：「喲，我也會解夢的。我倒覺得，你這次一定要留下來。你想想，牆上種菜不是高種嗎？戴斗笠打傘不是說明你這次有備無患嗎？跟你表妹脫光了背靠靠躺在床上，不是說明你翻身的時候就要到了嗎？」

秀才一聽，更有道理，於是精神振奮地參加考試，結果當然高中。

秀才碰到了不同的人，得到了不同的人對現實不同的解釋，也跟著產生了不同的思考及行為模式。這兩個人對於夢境兩面的解釋，分開來看你不覺得都很有道理嗎？ 正負的想法不就在一念之間嗎？

在非常低潮的時候，實際情況也許沒有這麼快就能轉換，但是你的正面思考能力，不就在負面的隔壁嗎？換個角度，再堅持一會，讓自己能夠跳開消極的態度一下子，找個像太陽的朋友，感受他們正面的解讀，也許你也能跟秀才一樣，讓自己的負面情緒奇妙地瞬間轉換，結果或許不一定跟他一樣順利，但是在過程中能夠有較正面思考，也挺划得來的，不是嗎？

想法決定我們的生活，有什麼樣的想法，就有什麼樣的生活質量。常看到身邊不是很富裕的朋友，他們隨遇而安，在任何處境下都不浪費能夠開心的生活點滴；也有相對很富足的朋友，他們努力工作，總是要等到賺到多少錢再帶父母去旅遊，做到某個程度就能有多點時間陪孩子一起讀書，升到某個職位才能思考自己要的人生…。

 (source:經濟日報)