Link to Russell Investment.
2009年3月27日 星期五
What's the State of the economy?
An interactive graphic via Russell : they identified a few key economic and market indicators to help assess the current economic health and trend.
Link to Russell Investment.
Link to Russell Investment.
2009年1月22日 星期四
僅靠中國無法挽救世界經濟
轉載自wsj , [原文]
對世界經濟而言﹐中國的影響力是不是要比美國大﹖
因而對世界而言﹐是不是中國經濟何時或能否復甦要比美國經濟快速走出泥沼更為重要﹖
一些分析人士認為中國的影響力更大﹐因為亞洲地區越來越糟糕的出口數據顯示﹐該地區的內部出口﹐尤其是對中國的出口正在急劇下滑。 西太平洋銀行(Westpac)的資深匯市策略師Richard Franulovich表示﹐世界其他地區的經濟放緩很大程度上是直接由中國而非美國的經濟放緩造成的。他還稱﹐製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)的簡單相關性證實﹐德國、中國與澳大利亞之間的直接相互依存性強於這些國家與美國的依存性。
Franulovich提出了一個不錯的論據﹕與2008年7月時的峰值相比﹐韓國對中國的出口下滑了65.2%﹐而美國住房市場從峰值滑落72.5%則花了三年左右的時間﹔他認為﹐對中國的出口下滑幅度十分驚人。
不過﹐在比較中美兩國的影響方面﹐人們仍需謹慎﹐不應過高估計中國的重要性﹐而低估美國的作用。對亞洲地區（包括大宗商品出口國澳大利亞）而言﹐近些年來﹐中國或許已成為一個主要的貿易夥伴﹐但美國也同樣如此。雖然隨著區域內貿易重要性的上升﹐美國的影響力未來會逐步衰退﹐但美國目前仍是亞洲的主要貿易夥伴之一。
而且在金融市場、財政及貨幣政策方面﹐世界仍在追隨美國。實際上﹐華爾街能否很快出現可持續的復甦﹐將影響到美國消費者信心能否好轉﹐以及美國普通消費者的購買欲望。
美元現在仍是世界主要的儲備及貿易貨幣﹐因此對許多經濟體而言﹐美元的走勢的確十分重要。
觀察亞洲經濟體與中國的貿易數據十分重要。毫無疑問﹐台灣、韓國、新加坡等經濟體目前之所以感受到一些壓力﹐原因就是中國的進口正在減少。如果中國政府為刺激銀行信貸、加大財政刺激力度所採取的積極舉措發揮作用﹐進而導致中國經濟今年表現出某些反彈跡象的話﹐亞洲地區也將從中受益。
中國確實十分關鍵﹐但並不是只有中國才握有打開亞洲經濟復甦之門的鑰匙﹔亞洲的經濟復甦也需要美國。很難想像在美國需求沒有恢復的情況下﹐亞洲的經濟狀況會持續好轉。對中國而言也是一樣﹐畢竟中國長期以來一直依賴美國人購買其生產的玩具和電子產品。
對世界經濟而言﹐中國的影響力是不是要比美國大﹖
因而對世界而言﹐是不是中國經濟何時或能否復甦要比美國經濟快速走出泥沼更為重要﹖
一些分析人士認為中國的影響力更大﹐因為亞洲地區越來越糟糕的出口數據顯示﹐該地區的內部出口﹐尤其是對中國的出口正在急劇下滑。 西太平洋銀行(Westpac)的資深匯市策略師Richard Franulovich表示﹐世界其他地區的經濟放緩很大程度上是直接由中國而非美國的經濟放緩造成的。他還稱﹐製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)的簡單相關性證實﹐德國、中國與澳大利亞之間的直接相互依存性強於這些國家與美國的依存性。
Franulovich提出了一個不錯的論據﹕與2008年7月時的峰值相比﹐韓國對中國的出口下滑了65.2%﹐而美國住房市場從峰值滑落72.5%則花了三年左右的時間﹔他認為﹐對中國的出口下滑幅度十分驚人。
不過﹐在比較中美兩國的影響方面﹐人們仍需謹慎﹐不應過高估計中國的重要性﹐而低估美國的作用。對亞洲地區（包括大宗商品出口國澳大利亞）而言﹐近些年來﹐中國或許已成為一個主要的貿易夥伴﹐但美國也同樣如此。雖然隨著區域內貿易重要性的上升﹐美國的影響力未來會逐步衰退﹐但美國目前仍是亞洲的主要貿易夥伴之一。
而且在金融市場、財政及貨幣政策方面﹐世界仍在追隨美國。實際上﹐華爾街能否很快出現可持續的復甦﹐將影響到美國消費者信心能否好轉﹐以及美國普通消費者的購買欲望。
美元現在仍是世界主要的儲備及貿易貨幣﹐因此對許多經濟體而言﹐美元的走勢的確十分重要。
觀察亞洲經濟體與中國的貿易數據十分重要。毫無疑問﹐台灣、韓國、新加坡等經濟體目前之所以感受到一些壓力﹐原因就是中國的進口正在減少。如果中國政府為刺激銀行信貸、加大財政刺激力度所採取的積極舉措發揮作用﹐進而導致中國經濟今年表現出某些反彈跡象的話﹐亞洲地區也將從中受益。
中國確實十分關鍵﹐但並不是只有中國才握有打開亞洲經濟復甦之門的鑰匙﹔亞洲的經濟復甦也需要美國。很難想像在美國需求沒有恢復的情況下﹐亞洲的經濟狀況會持續好轉。對中國而言也是一樣﹐畢竟中國長期以來一直依賴美國人購買其生產的玩具和電子產品。
2008年12月19日 星期五
何謂"定量寬鬆"
什麼是定量寬鬆(Quantitative Easing)?~~除了 flooding the economy with money外, Wikipedia上有蠻好的解釋:
另外經濟學人這篇World economy: Going quantitative~中文版之部份內容
隨著各國央行大幅調降利率，傳統的貨幣政策工具就快到達極限，越來越多人開始討論非正統的貨幣政策。其中之一是「定量寬鬆」，即央行不再專注於利率，而把注意力放在市場貨幣流通的總量。定量寬鬆是超級寬鬆的貨幣政策，但不見得在零利率時才使用，而是在零利率時，不使用定量寬鬆，就很難再放寬貨幣政策。
最早使用定量寬鬆的是日本，定量寬鬆從未解決通縮的問題，但如果當時沒有採行定量寬鬆，問題可能會更嚴重，定量寬鬆也有助穩定銀行部門。
不過，經濟已經嚴重惡化，定量寬鬆仍無法讓歐美免於衰退。此外，若銀行仍然不願放款，或是借款需求崩潰，定量寬鬆就無法刺激實質經濟。因此，聯準會推出了更積極的計畫，跨過商業放款機構，直接向企業買證券，等同於直接借款給經濟。
採用越複雜的手段，其不確定性也就越高。最大的擔憂還是通膨，例如大量增加的流動性能否來得及收回，政府貨幣政策轉向的時機是否正確等。不過，日本並沒有因為定量寬鬆而引發高通膨，2006年初決定讓貨幣政策正常化後，日本央行即成功地快速吸收流動性
sources: 全文 . 英文原文
Quantitative easing is a tool of monetary policy. It effectively means that the central bank prints new money, in order to increase the supply of money. 'Quantitative' refers to the money supply; 'easing' essentially means increasing.Quantitative easing was used notably by the Bank of Japan to fight domestic deflation in the early 2000s.The BOJ accomplished this by buying more government bonds than would be required to set the interest rate to zero. It also bought asset-backed securities, equities, and extended the terms of its commercial paper purchasing operation
另外經濟學人這篇World economy: Going quantitative~中文版之部份內容
隨著各國央行大幅調降利率，傳統的貨幣政策工具就快到達極限，越來越多人開始討論非正統的貨幣政策。其中之一是「定量寬鬆」，即央行不再專注於利率，而把注意力放在市場貨幣流通的總量。定量寬鬆是超級寬鬆的貨幣政策，但不見得在零利率時才使用，而是在零利率時，不使用定量寬鬆，就很難再放寬貨幣政策。
最早使用定量寬鬆的是日本，定量寬鬆從未解決通縮的問題，但如果當時沒有採行定量寬鬆，問題可能會更嚴重，定量寬鬆也有助穩定銀行部門。
不過，經濟已經嚴重惡化，定量寬鬆仍無法讓歐美免於衰退。此外，若銀行仍然不願放款，或是借款需求崩潰，定量寬鬆就無法刺激實質經濟。因此，聯準會推出了更積極的計畫，跨過商業放款機構，直接向企業買證券，等同於直接借款給經濟。
採用越複雜的手段，其不確定性也就越高。最大的擔憂還是通膨，例如大量增加的流動性能否來得及收回，政府貨幣政策轉向的時機是否正確等。不過，日本並沒有因為定量寬鬆而引發高通膨，2006年初決定讓貨幣政策正常化後，日本央行即成功地快速吸收流動性
sources: 全文 . 英文原文
2008年12月17日 星期三
美國11月CPI降幅創紀錄之最
又一個創歷史記錄的數字公佈
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週二公佈﹐經季節性因素調整後﹐美國11月份CPI下降1.7%﹐為1947年政府開始採集該數據以來的最大降幅﹐同時也遠遠超出了華爾街經濟學家此前預計的1.3%的降幅。
交通運輸價格下降9.8%﹐降幅創歷史紀錄﹐因機票價格下降4%﹐新汽車價格下降0.6%﹐說明汽車銷售嚴重下滑。
另一方面﹐美國11月份新屋開工數降至歷史低點﹐創24年來最大跌幅﹐同時預示未來建築活動的建築許可也大幅下降。
美國商務部(Commerce Department)週二公佈﹐經季節性因素調整後﹐11月份新屋開工數較前一個月下降18.9%﹐折合成年率為625,000套﹔10月份新屋開工數修正後下降6.4%﹐折合成年率為771,000套﹐此前商務部公佈的初步數據為下降4.5%%﹐折合成年率為791,000套。11月份新屋開工數較上年同期則是下降47.0%。
屬於領先經濟指標的建築許可11月份下滑15.6%﹐折合成年率降至紀錄最低水平616,000套。
sources: wsj.EconomPic
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週二公佈﹐經季節性因素調整後﹐美國11月份CPI下降1.7%﹐為1947年政府開始採集該數據以來的最大降幅﹐同時也遠遠超出了華爾街經濟學家此前預計的1.3%的降幅。
交通運輸價格下降9.8%﹐降幅創歷史紀錄﹐因機票價格下降4%﹐新汽車價格下降0.6%﹐說明汽車銷售嚴重下滑。
另一方面﹐美國11月份新屋開工數降至歷史低點﹐創24年來最大跌幅﹐同時預示未來建築活動的建築許可也大幅下降。
美國商務部(Commerce Department)週二公佈﹐經季節性因素調整後﹐11月份新屋開工數較前一個月下降18.9%﹐折合成年率為625,000套﹔10月份新屋開工數修正後下降6.4%﹐折合成年率為771,000套﹐此前商務部公佈的初步數據為下降4.5%%﹐折合成年率為791,000套。11月份新屋開工數較上年同期則是下降47.0%。
屬於領先經濟指標的建築許可11月份下滑15.6%﹐折合成年率降至紀錄最低水平616,000套。
sources: wsj.EconomPic
2008年12月11日 星期四
Investors buy U.S. debt at 0 yield
誰說借錢一定要付利息~~
When was the last time you invested in something that you knew wouldn’t make money?
12/9 美國政府3個月期公債自其開始發行(1929)首次出現負利率.
此訊息所代表的是: 當人們在股.債及不動產遭遇重大的損失後, 寧可把錢放在一個即使沒有報酬, 但卻是安全的地方. 雖然這唯一的好處是降低了美國政府的借款成本, 但也讓經濟學家擔心這將影響經濟的復甦.
另外當天發行的公債 期間:4-weeks. 金額:300億美元. 殖利率:0. 自2001開始發行來從未出現過的情況..
這些表示人們寧可投資在一個安全但報酬卻是零或是負的投資工具上.
同時, 市場上指標利率10年期公債亦同樣下跌, 10-years: 2.64%. 相較於上個月為3.75%. 12/5-2.505% . 是1962年自Fed有交易記錄開始的低點.
整理幾個主要的原因:
1.投資者對金融市場的缺乏信心.
2.Money market fund 只投資在安全性高的政府債券.
3.對於通縮的擔憂.
4.外國投資者的避險行為.(擔心fed降息, 匯率上的損失)
5.投資者其它投資贖回的資金流入.
6.基金經理人年底的作帳或備供可能的贖回.
Source : Investors buy U.S. debt at zero yield.
When was the last time you invested in something that you knew wouldn’t make money?
12/9 美國政府3個月期公債自其開始發行(1929)首次出現負利率.
此訊息所代表的是: 當人們在股.債及不動產遭遇重大的損失後, 寧可把錢放在一個即使沒有報酬, 但卻是安全的地方. 雖然這唯一的好處是降低了美國政府的借款成本, 但也讓經濟學家擔心這將影響經濟的復甦.
另外當天發行的公債 期間:4-weeks. 金額:300億美元. 殖利率:0. 自2001開始發行來從未出現過的情況..
這些表示人們寧可投資在一個安全但報酬卻是零或是負的投資工具上.
同時, 市場上指標利率10年期公債亦同樣下跌, 10-years: 2.64%. 相較於上個月為3.75%. 12/5-2.505% . 是1962年自Fed有交易記錄開始的低點.
整理幾個主要的原因:
1.投資者對金融市場的缺乏信心.
2.Money market fund 只投資在安全性高的政府債券.
3.對於通縮的擔憂.
4.外國投資者的避險行為.(擔心fed降息, 匯率上的損失)
5.投資者其它投資贖回的資金流入.
6.基金經理人年底的作帳或備供可能的贖回.
Source : Investors buy U.S. debt at zero yield.
2008年12月3日 星期三
How to avoid the horrors of ‘stag-deflation’
各國的央行在處理通膨上, 很容易可以藉由升息來控制 . 然而在對付通縮時, 因為利率無法降到零以下,故將導致貨幣政策失效, 無法藉此控制. 先前對於通膨的煩腦, 現在大概都已被通縮取代了.
而Roubin先前曾提及, 不用再去管這些的Bail out有沒有用, 做總比不做好的多. 寬鬆的貨幣政策,即使將導致通膨的產生, 相信各央行都有很好的經驗可應付. 但若stag-deflation(停滯性通縮)到來, 那才將是個horrors.
以下取自12/2/08Financial Times by Nouriel Roubini
The US and the global economy are at risk of a severe stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation.
A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labour costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices fall will lead to sharply lower inflation. Thus inflation in advanced economies will fall towards the 1 per cent level that leads to concerns about deflation.
Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap, a deflation trap and a debt deflation trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero and thus monetary policy becomes ineffective. We are already in this liquidity trap since the Fed funds target rate is still 1 per cent but the effective one is close to zero as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with liquidity…
As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies have be used: massive provision of liquidity to financial institutions to unclog the liquidity crunch and reduce the spread between short-term market rates and policy rates; quasi-fiscal policies to bail out investors, lenders and borrowers…
In the next few months, the flow of macroeconomic and earnings news will be much worse than expected. The credit crunch will get worse, with deleveraging continuing as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, leading to further cascading falls in prices, other insolvent financial institutions going bust and a few emerging market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis.
The worst is not behind us: 2009 will be a painful year of a global recession, deflation and bankruptcies. Only very aggressive and co-ordinated policy actions will ensure the global economy recovers in 2010 rather than facing protracted stagnation and deflation.
Read full article
而Roubin先前曾提及, 不用再去管這些的Bail out有沒有用, 做總比不做好的多. 寬鬆的貨幣政策,即使將導致通膨的產生, 相信各央行都有很好的經驗可應付. 但若stag-deflation(停滯性通縮)到來, 那才將是個horrors.
以下取自12/2/08Financial Times by Nouriel Roubini
The US and the global economy are at risk of a severe stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation.
A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labour costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices fall will lead to sharply lower inflation. Thus inflation in advanced economies will fall towards the 1 per cent level that leads to concerns about deflation.
Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap, a deflation trap and a debt deflation trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero and thus monetary policy becomes ineffective. We are already in this liquidity trap since the Fed funds target rate is still 1 per cent but the effective one is close to zero as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with liquidity…
As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies have be used: massive provision of liquidity to financial institutions to unclog the liquidity crunch and reduce the spread between short-term market rates and policy rates; quasi-fiscal policies to bail out investors, lenders and borrowers…
In the next few months, the flow of macroeconomic and earnings news will be much worse than expected. The credit crunch will get worse, with deleveraging continuing as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, leading to further cascading falls in prices, other insolvent financial institutions going bust and a few emerging market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis.
The worst is not behind us: 2009 will be a painful year of a global recession, deflation and bankruptcies. Only very aggressive and co-ordinated policy actions will ensure the global economy recovers in 2010 rather than facing protracted stagnation and deflation.
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2008年12月1日 星期一
What Would Keynes Have Done?
凱恩斯主義經濟學或凱恩斯主義是根據凱恩斯的著作《貨幣、利息與就業通論》的思想基礎上的經濟理論，主張國家採用擴張性的經濟政策，通過增加需求促進經濟增長。
摘自The New York Times 11/30/08 What would Kenyes Have Done? by N.Gregory Mankiw
根據凱恩斯主義, 經濟下滑的根源是來自於需求不足. 商品或服務的需求下滑--> 銷售下跌--> 生產削減及裁員...增高的失業率及獲利的下跌, 進一步的壓抑需求..如此將造成惡性循環.
原文部份內容:
IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes. Although Keynes died more than a half-century ago, his diagnosis of recessions and depressions remains the foundation of modern macroeconomics. His insights go a long way toward explaining the challenges we now confront.
According to Keynes, the root cause of economic downturns is insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.
The situation reverses, Keynesian theory says, only when some event or policy increases aggregate demand. The problem right now is that it is hard to see where that demand might come from.
The economy’s output of goods and services is traditionally divided into four components: consumption, investment, net exports and government purchases. Any expansion in demand has to come from one of these four. But in each case, strong forces are working to keep spending down.
The fly in the ointment — or perhaps it is more an elephant — is the long-term fiscal picture. Increased government spending may be a good short-run fix, but it would add to the budget deficit.
Keynesian economists often dismiss these long-run concerns when the economy has short-run problems. “In the long run we are all dead,” Keynes famously quipped.
It is hard to say how successful monetary and fiscal policy will be in avoiding a deep downturn. But as events unfold, you can be sure that policymakers in the Fed and Treasury will be looking at them through a Keynesian lens.
In 1936, Keynes wrote, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slave of some defunct economist.” In 2008, no defunct economist is more prominent than Keynes himself.
摘自The New York Times 11/30/08 What would Kenyes Have Done? by N.Gregory Mankiw
根據凱恩斯主義, 經濟下滑的根源是來自於需求不足. 商品或服務的需求下滑--> 銷售下跌--> 生產削減及裁員...增高的失業率及獲利的下跌, 進一步的壓抑需求..如此將造成惡性循環.
原文部份內容:
IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes. Although Keynes died more than a half-century ago, his diagnosis of recessions and depressions remains the foundation of modern macroeconomics. His insights go a long way toward explaining the challenges we now confront.
According to Keynes, the root cause of economic downturns is insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.
The situation reverses, Keynesian theory says, only when some event or policy increases aggregate demand. The problem right now is that it is hard to see where that demand might come from.
The economy’s output of goods and services is traditionally divided into four components: consumption, investment, net exports and government purchases. Any expansion in demand has to come from one of these four. But in each case, strong forces are working to keep spending down.
The fly in the ointment — or perhaps it is more an elephant — is the long-term fiscal picture. Increased government spending may be a good short-run fix, but it would add to the budget deficit.
Keynesian economists often dismiss these long-run concerns when the economy has short-run problems. “In the long run we are all dead,” Keynes famously quipped.
It is hard to say how successful monetary and fiscal policy will be in avoiding a deep downturn. But as events unfold, you can be sure that policymakers in the Fed and Treasury will be looking at them through a Keynesian lens.
In 1936, Keynes wrote, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slave of some defunct economist.” In 2008, no defunct economist is more prominent than Keynes himself.
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