美聯儲維持利率不變 暗示年內不加息

From wsj:

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱美聯儲)週三決定維持基準利率不變﹐同時下調了對美國經濟增長的預期。此舉顯示出﹐美聯儲將在年內把利率維持在紀錄低點﹐以支持經濟增長。

美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在週三決定維持聯邦基金利率區間在0.0%-0.25%不變。

與兩個月前的上次會議相比﹐此次會議上美聯儲官員們在描述美國復甦勢頭時的措辭更加具有試探性。他們還指出﹐在歐洲爆發債務危機後﹐金融環境對經濟增長的支持力度減弱。

FOMC在其措辭謹慎的政策聲明中表示﹐自4月份上次會議以來獲得的信息顯示﹐經濟正在復甦之中﹐勞動力市場正在逐步改善。

美國的失業率料將繼續高企﹐而且通貨膨脹率將在一段時間內維持低位。在這種情況下﹐美聯儲表示﹐預計基準的聯邦基金利率將在較長的時間內維持在接近於零的水平。這可能意味著利率水平將維持在紀錄低點﹐直到明年。

為應對全球金融危機和此後的嚴重衰退﹐美聯儲在2008年底將銀行間拆借利率下調至0%-0.25%的水平。而一年多來﹐美聯儲曾表示﹐鑒於經濟復甦的步伐將是漸進的﹐所以計劃在更長的時間內將利率維持在這一低水平。

與4月份會議相比﹐美聯儲官員對就業市場的評估更加悲觀。當時他們認為就業市場開始好轉﹔而這一次﹐他們表示﹐市場正在“逐步”改善。

美聯儲在評估家庭支出時似乎也更加悲觀﹐只是表示家庭支出在增加。而他們在4月份的會後聲明中的表述是﹐支出最近已經明顯增長。

美聯儲主席貝南克6月9日對美國經濟情況進行最近一次評論時曾表示﹐儘管美國政府降低了對經濟的扶持力度﹐但是消費支出和企業投資似乎可以彌補這方面的影響。但是自那時起﹐由於缺乏了進一步的財政支持﹐經濟復甦似乎變得較為脆弱。

美聯儲對金融狀況的樂觀程度也有所降低﹐在歐洲爆發財政危機前﹐美國的金融狀況一直在穩步好轉。自從上次會議以來﹐對歐元命運的擔心已經拖纍美國股市下跌了近10%。

美聯儲週三指出通貨膨脹放緩﹐並重申通貨膨脹在一段時間內可能較為溫和。 ........ (source)

FOMC statement

• 週三由美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)發佈之聲明表明，表示將在“較長時間內”維持極低利率水平不變，消彌了市場對聯儲可能較快加息的擔心情緒。
  
  
• 同時重申，對於1.25萬億美元抵押貸款擔保證券和約1,750億美元機構債券的購買已幾近完成，剩餘之交易將如原先規劃在本月底前完成。
  
  
• 雖然目前的經濟前景已有所改善，但聲明中重申，由於失業率仍然企高不下，使得家庭支出仍持續受限。
  
  
• 而商業設備及軟體開支已明顯上升，只是非住房的投資仍下降、房市開工持續維持在低水平以及就業市場的雇用意願仍顯低弱。
  
  
• Press release 全文
  
  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
  
  With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
  
  The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt; those purchases are nearing completion, and the remaining transactions will be executed by the end of this month. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
  
  In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. .....
  
  

Testimony-Bernanke

美聯儲在上週(2/18)無預警的調高貼現率一碼至0.75%，引發市場退市疑慮。因而伯南克的國會聽証對利率及目前經濟的看法受市場高度的關注。其發表的談話重申將在較長時段內維持低美元利率政策以刺激需求增長、推動美國經濟的持續復甦。

全文:
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

News from sina:
　　

.......聯儲局主席本·伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)週三稱，美國經濟目前正處於“初期的”復甦進程中，因此聯儲局仍舊需要將基準利率維持在較低水平來促進聯邦政府刺激性計劃到期以後的個人消費者和企業需求。

伯南克在今天於美國國會眾議院下屬金融服務委員會(House Financial Services Committee)召開的聽證會上表示：“可持續的經濟復甦進程將依賴於私有行業對產品和服務的最終需求的繼續增長，而就目前看來，私有行業最終需求的增長速度看起來確實將比較溫和。”

伯南克重申了聯儲局此前作出的承諾，即蕭條的就業市場和較低的通脹率將允許聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在“更長時期內”把基準利率維持在0到0.25%的目標區間不變。但他同時表示，聯儲局將需“在某種程度上”開始緊縮貨幣政策。

伯南克稱：“聯邦公開市場委員會繼續認為，處於較低水平的資源利用率、受抑制的通脹趨勢以及穩定的通脹預期等經濟狀況很可能將使該委員會有理由在更長時期內將聯邦基金利率維持在極低水平。”他同時重申，聯儲局理事會上週作出的上調貼現率的決定旨在進一步正常化聯儲局的貸款工具，並不意味著聯儲局對經濟前景的預期或貨幣政策前景將會發生任何改變。

伯南克稱，就業市場已經顯示出趨於穩定的“暫時性”跡象，如就業崗位減少的數量有所下滑、製造業就業人數增加以及臨時僱員的需求增長等。但他同時指出：“雖然存在著這些正面跡象，但就業市場仍舊相當疲軟，失業率維持於接近10%的水平，空缺崗位十分稀少。”他還表示，在所有失業者當中，有40% 的待崗時間已經達到了六個月或以上，這一點令人感到“特別擔心”。

伯南克還稱：“在經濟增長趨於成熟的形勢下，聯儲局將需在某種程度上開始緊縮貨幣政策以阻止通脹壓力上升。雖然收購國債和機構債券的相關活動已經使得聯儲局的資產負債表規模大幅增長，但我們確信自己擁有在合適的時候緊縮貨幣政策立場的必要工具。”他表示：“聯邦公開市場委員會將繼續以經濟前景和金融市場狀況的進展為依據，對其債券收購活動作出評估。”

伯南克還指出，金融市場的狀況已經有所改善，使得較大型公司重新具備了通過股票和債券進行融資的能力，但“與此相比，銀行貸款活動繼續萎縮，主要反映了貸款標準的緊縮和不確定的經濟前景下的信貸需求疲軟”。 .....

FOMC statement - No Change

• 週三由美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)發佈之聲明表明，對美國經濟前景的看法較之前略為樂觀，不過Fed還是將短期利率維持在接近零的水平。
  
  
• 聲明中對於經濟的預估由先前(2009.12.16)的"可能在一段時期內維持疲軟走勢(economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,)"，改為"經濟復甦的步伐可能在一段時期內保持溫和"(pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time)。雖措辭較之前略顯樂觀，但對經濟復甦仍然持謹慎態度。
  
  
• 同時對於抵押貸款擔保證券購買計劃，Fed政策制定委員會仍然決定在3月底前結束購買1.25萬億美元抵押貸款擔保證券和約1,750億美元機構債券。並如先前聲明的在2月1日之前退出大多數應急貸款計劃。
  
  
• 雖然目前的經濟前景已有所改善，但聲明中重申，由於失業率仍然企高不下，且通貨膨脹率偏低，故將在較長一段時間維持聯邦基金利率在低點不變。
  
  
• Fed稱，家庭支出正在溫和增長，但勞動力市場疲軟、收入增長溫和、住房價格下滑以及信貸緊縮狀況依然會令家庭支出的增長受到抑制。
  
  
• Press release 全文

FOMC Statement

美聯儲在結束為期兩天的利率會議後宣佈，維持0-0.25%的基準利率區間不變。此舉符合市場的普遍預期。美聯儲(Fed)週三的會後聲明要點整理如下：(FOMC Press Release)

• 依據11月份的資料顯示，經濟活動持續回升，勞動市場惡化的情況也獲改善。 企業在用人及固定投資上仍是緊縮狀態。
  
  
• 房市及家計單位的支出，雖然在經濟成長緩慢及就業市場較弱的情況下，近幾個月仍顯示改善跡象。
  
  
• 金融市場狀況的改善則進一步支撐了經濟的成長。
  
  
• 即使經濟活動仍持弱一段時間，但在各種政策的支持下，將能使資源的使用進一步提升。
  
  
• 在目前資源使用率低、長期通膨受抑制及穩定的通膨預期下，低利率仍將持續一段時間。
  
  
• 在退場機制上：為了能讓市場更平滑的過渡，FED對於市場流動性的支持將逐步放慢，並如先前規劃的幾項借貸計畫於2010Q1前執行完畢，但也保留修改這些計劃的彈性，以幫助支持金融穩定和經濟增長。
  
  

Bernanke-On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York
On the Outlook for the Economy and Policy (November 16, 2009)

From sina：伯南克-明年經濟有望適度增長

美聯儲主席伯南克表示，美國經濟仍面臨相當大的挑戰，但最有可能出現的局面是經濟適度增長的同時通脹維持在低水平。伯南克在紐約經濟俱樂部發表的書面演講稿中指出：“我估計經濟的適度增長勢頭將延續至明年。最終需求已顯露走強勢頭，這主要得益於金融狀況的整體改善。”

身為美國央行一把手的他同時表示：“但是，經濟面臨的重大挑戰依然存在。信貸流動仍受到限制，經濟活動依然脆弱，失業率還是太高。未來經濟可能遭遇挫折。”他還稱，不幸的是，經濟的增長速度可能不足以推動失業率顯著下降，美國經濟可能面臨一場失業型復甦，至少在復甦的初始階段是如此。

伯南克認為，通脹前景與經濟增長前景類似，也是有喜有憂，“通脹有望在一段時間內維持在低水平，雖然近來商品價格持續上漲。”今天伯南克發表的言論比聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)最近一份利率政策聲明更為詳盡，但主要論調並沒有什麼變化。

伯南克重申，FOMC預計“超低利率政策”可能持續“較長一段時間”，但是他同時指出，這只是FOMC的一個預期，“經濟狀況或經濟前景的重大變化也可能改變政策預期”。

整體而言，今天伯南克講話的基調是謹慎樂觀。他承認，某些分析人士已看出近來美國經濟的改善主要得益於一些臨時性因素，其中包括庫存削減和政府“舊車換現金”計劃的刺激，這可能導致未來經濟的增長暫停。

伯南克稱：“我的看法是近來經濟的增長更依賴於臨時性因素，而明年經濟可能保持增長。增長還得益於某些基本面因素的改善，其中包括消費者開支、住房營建、信貸狀況和出口市場的改善。”他認為，兩個重大因素可能影響明年的經濟增長，它們就是銀行信貸受限和就業市場疲軟。

伯南克指出，去年聯儲和其他央行採取的異乎尋常行動“為把我們的金融系統和經濟從懸崖邊上拉回來作出了貢獻”。

他還稱，大型企業和那些與股市及其他高流動性市場存在聯繫的公司有獲得信貸的途徑，但依賴於銀行借貸的小型企業和家庭仍面臨信貸緊縮的問題。他指出：“銀行信貸縮減可能延緩經濟復甦，因為這將遏制消費者開支特別是對耐用品的開支，還將限制一些公司為運營籌集資金的能力。此外，信貸受限可能阻礙就業的成長。」

美、歐盟及英央行續維持寬鬆貨幣政策

眾所關注的美國、歐盟及英國央行對於寬鬆貨幣政策調整與否之決議出爐，三個主要經濟體央行有共識的在經濟仍疲弱的態勢下，還將持續一段時間的寬鬆貨幣政策。

From wsj:

美聯儲維持利率不變﹐對經濟前景更為樂觀

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱美聯儲)官員週三決定將利率維持在接近零的水平﹐以支持經濟復甦。與此同時﹐Fed對經濟前景的看法也更為樂觀。

美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee, 簡稱FOMC)以10:0的投票結果一致同意將聯邦基金利率目標維持在0-0.25%區間不變。

美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee, 簡稱FOMC)在為期兩天的政策會議結束後重申﹐鑒於失業率依然高企且通貨膨脹水平處於低位﹐該委員會計劃讓利率在較長時期內都維持在紀錄低點水平。

同時﹐與1個月前相比﹐美聯儲目前對美國經濟復甦前景的看法更樂觀了一些。

美聯儲在聲明中稱﹐FOMC自9月份政策會議以來收集到的信息顯示﹐經濟活動已持續上升。

美聯儲官員警告稱﹐就業市場的疲弱正在限制消費開支﹐阻礙了經濟復甦﹐令通貨膨脹繼續受到抑制。

但與9月份相比﹐美聯儲官員對經濟增長前景更為樂觀﹐表示家庭支出似乎在上升。

FOMC表示﹐即使經濟在一段時間內都可能表現疲弱﹐但Fed的應急舉措、紀錄低位的利率水平以及政府的刺激措施都將在維持物價的同時﹐支持經濟恢復強勁增長﹐並使得資源利用率逐步恢復至較高水平。

在失業率高企和通貨膨脹水平偏低的情況下﹐美聯儲表示在較長時期內基準利率將維持在紀錄低點不變。

美聯儲還將機構債購買規模從2,000億美元削減至1,750億美元﹐並重申計劃在2010年3月底前完成1.25萬億美元抵押貸款支持證券購買計劃。

** Fed Press Release


英國央行將債券購買計劃規模擴大250億英鎊

英國經濟健康狀況尚未明朗之際﹐英國央行(Bank of England)貨幣政策委員會(Monetary Policy Committee)週四針對經濟下滑時間可能拉長的情況採取了進一步的保障措施﹐宣佈將債券購買計劃的規模擴大250億英鎊。

......

很多分析師認為﹐這將是英國央行本輪寬鬆政策週期的最後一項舉措﹐但他們同時指出﹐鑒於英國經濟的疲弱態勢還將持續一段時間﹐英國央行不會急於收緊政策。

許多分析人士預計﹐將於11月18日公佈的本次政策會議的紀要將顯示﹐貨幣政策委員會在決定是否擴大寬鬆政策規模上存在分歧。

歐洲央行將再融資利率維持在1.0%不變

歐洲央行(European Central Bank)週四宣佈將關鍵利率維持在1.00%不變﹐與市場的普遍預期一致。

.......

歐洲央行行長特里謝(Jean-Claude Trichet)在當天的新聞發佈會上表示﹐經濟中存在的過剩流動性將得到及時回收﹐暗示該行已開始考慮如何解除大規模刺激計劃。

特里謝稱﹐不是所有流動性措施存在的必要性都與過去一樣。但他沒有更具體說明。

特里謝稱﹐歐洲央行今年下半年看到了更多經濟復甦的跡象﹐預計歐元區的物價未來幾個月將停止下降。

他說﹐歐洲央行預計經濟將在2010年穩步復甦。但他也承認這個預期很不確定。

特里謝指出﹐該行預計以往政策的效果將逐漸對經濟產生作用。

特里謝還告誡歐元區各國政府﹐應拿出有力措施來削減預算赤字。

Fed 褐皮書：經濟顯現企穩跡象

Intercept from Fed Beige Book (10/21/2009)-Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before October 13, 2009. ..

• Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors since the last report, albeit often from depressed levels.(美聯儲12個儲備銀行轄區內多數行業顯示出企穩或溫和復甦跡象)
  
  
• Manufacturing：Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity was generally stronger since the last report.(大多地區的製造業呈現復甦, 部份地區主受惠於舊車換現金方案)
  
  
• Most Districts reported that housing market conditions improved in recent weeks, primarily from a pickup in sales of low- to middle-priced houses. Contacts reported that sales were boosted by the government's tax credit for first-time homebuyers. (房市近期呈現全面性改善, 主要是來自中低價位的銷售上升. 當然此也是受惠於政府針對首購族的稅賦減免)
  
  
• Commercial real estate continued to weaken across the 12 Districts...High vacancy rates were noted as a key concern especially for landlords who were not offering concessions. (各區的不動產市場仍是較為疲弱, 高的空屋率即是其隱憂)
  
  
• Banking and Financial Services：Many Districts continued to report weak or declining loan demand, and many noted further erosion of credit quality.(銀行與金融區塊仍是較弱的一環,主來自貸款需求低迷或者下降)
  
  
• Employment, Wages, and Prices：Labor market conditions were generally reported as weak or mixed across Districts, but a few encouraging signs were noted.(勞動市場普遍低迷, 但部份地區有些許令人鼓舞的跡象)
  

FOMC Statement

依據美聯儲(Federal Reserve)週三所發佈之資料顯示：利率將維持 0-0.25% 利率區間不變，同時也強調了經濟復甦的跡象。

內容要點整理：

• 金融市場及房市情況進一步改善，只是受限於失業及較弱的經濟成長而使得消費受限。
  
  
• 即使未來經濟的成長較為疲弱，但各種的政策將能有所支撐。
  
  
• 無通膨之風險，將聯邦基金利率目標維持在0-0.25%區間不變，並將持續一段期間。
  
  
• 為使市場平穩過度，對1.25兆美元的抵押貸款支持證券購買計劃將延長至明年第一季末。
  
  
• 3000億美元的國債購買則將依先前規劃於2009年10月結束。

Federal Reserve press release (Sep. 23, 2009)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

.....

Fed 褐皮書

From wsj:
美聯儲黃皮書﹕7月和8月經濟繼續持穩

美國經濟在夏季中期保持穩定﹐但消費開支的疲弱表明經濟在衰退後復甦的步伐受到抑制。

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)週三發佈的黃皮書(Beige Book)報告稱﹐儘管政府的“舊車換現金”計劃提振了汽車銷售﹐但多數地區的零售額依然為持平。

聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)在9月22日至23日召開的會議上將參考Fed的這份經濟活動總結報告。最新的這份報告由亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)編撰﹐反映了7月中旬至8月末的經濟活動狀況。

最新報告稱﹐12家地區聯邦儲備銀行均表示﹐7月和8月經濟活動繼續持穩。報告稱﹐多數地區的消費開支依然疲弱。黃皮書稱﹐所有地區的勞工市場狀況仍顯低迷﹐但有幾個地區也指出有臨時招募活動上升和裁員步伐減緩的跡象。

住宅房地產市場仍然低迷﹐但有改善跡象出現。多數地區依然面臨房價下跌壓力。而商業房地產市場的需求仍疲弱。銀行業方面﹐黃皮書表示多數地區報告信貸標準收緊﹐貸款需求疲弱。

同時﹐多數地區報告製造業產值有所改善。而持續的經濟衰退使得通貨膨脹受到抑制﹐所有地區面臨的工資增長壓力微乎其微﹐多數地區的消費價格保持穩定。

Fed: Beige Book -summary

FOMC Minutes

From wsj-聯儲紀要: 對衰退即將結束的信心增強 :

美國聯邦儲備委員會(U.S. Federal Reserve, 簡稱美聯儲)最新公佈的會議紀要顯示﹐Fed官員對美國經濟前景持更加樂觀的看法﹐對經濟衰退即將結束的信心增強。

根據週三發佈的8月11-12日美聯儲會議紀要內容﹐與會者認為﹐已公佈的經濟數據和一些非正式的證據增強了他們對經濟衰退即將結束、下半年經濟可能恢復增長的信心。美聯儲官員預計﹐在財政刺激措施和貨幣政策影響下﹐美國經濟有望在今年年底以及2010年實現增長。不過會議紀要還顯示﹐政策的刺激效果將從2010年開始逐漸減弱﹐需要有個人需求和收入的增長來取代這種刺激作用﹐並成為推動經濟增長的主要動力。

會議紀要還顯示﹐聯邦公開市場委員會(美聯儲eral Open Market Committee,
簡稱FOMC)認為﹐應逐漸縮小抵押貸款支持證券的購買規模﹐以便使金融市場更容易適應刺激政策的逐步解除。美聯儲在8月份政策會議上表示﹐將在10月末完成3,000億美元美國國債的購買計劃﹐另外﹐為使市場能順利適應刺激措施的逐漸淡出﹐將放慢剩餘債券的購買節奏。

會議紀要顯示﹐美聯儲可能對抵押貸款支持證券市場採取相同的方法。不過FOMC並未在上個月的會議上就放慢購買節奏做出決定。美聯儲官員在此次會議上同意將定期資產支持證券貸款工具(Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility)的新增貸款發放最終期限延長到2010年﹐不過對於擴大所涵蓋資產的類型持謹慎態度。

在經濟前景方面﹐美聯儲的研究人員稱﹐國內外經濟數據在6月和8月份的會議期間均有所改善。研究人員預計﹐下半年實際國內生產總值有望實現增長﹐2010年增速可能略高於潛在水平。

不過會議紀要還顯示﹐多數官員預計下半年美國經濟僅會出現緩慢復甦。所有與會者認為都美國經濟依然容易受到不利因素的衝擊。

-------------------------------------------------

FOMC Minutes -August 11-12, 2009

奧巴馬將提名貝南克續任Fed主席

現任Fed主席貝南克的任期將於明年1月結束。先前對於其是否能獲得連任有不一的看法，而正面的評價在於他將經濟從可能陷入二次蕭條的危機中拉了回來。奧巴馬總統對他的提名需要獲得參議院(Senate)的批准。

From The NY times:

President Obama plans to nominate Ben S. Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, administration officials said Monday night.

The nomination, while expected, comes after Mr. Bernanke has had perhaps the most tumultuous term of any Fed chairman, helping to steer the economy through its greatest downturn since the 1930's. Mr. Bernanke is a Republican who was appointed by President George W. Bush.

A top White House official said Mr. Obama had decided to keep Mr. Bernanke at the helm of the Fed because he had been bold and brilliant in his attempts to combat the financial crisis and the current deep economic recession.

"The president thinks that Ben's done a great job as Fed chairman, that he has helped the economy through one of the worst experiences since the Great Depression and that he has essentially been pulling the economy back from the brink of what would have been the second Great Depression,'' an administraiton official said on Monday night.

Mr. Obama will appear with Mr. Bernanke on Tuesday in Martha's Vineyard, where Mr. Obama is vacationing for the week.

FOMC Statement

8/12 Fed 聲明內容摘譯:

金融現況:
近幾週來金融市場的狀況已進一步獲改善. 家計面：雖仍受就業市場疲弱、所得減緩及緊縮的信用所影響,然而家計單位的支出已持續呈現改善. 企業面：雖然還在刪固定資出及減少庫存,但存貨的回補與銷售速度逐趨一致. ==>市場雖仍疲弱但已大幅改善, 即正逐步企穩.

通膨預期:
資源需求的疲弱將壓抑價格的壓力, 因而通膨將維持疲弱一段時間. ==>短期無通膨壓力.

利率:
維持0-0.25%的利率, 並將於一段期間內繼續維持此低利率水平.==>在經濟未真正站穩前, 貨幣政策將持續寬鬆.

債券的購買:
聯準會將逐步放緩3000億美元國債的購買計畫, 並預計10月底前完成此目標.==>對金融市場的復甦漸信心.

Federal Reserve Press Release (August 12, 2009):

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

褐皮書：衰退程度減輕勞動力市場堪憂

From sina:

....美聯儲發佈了最新一期的褐皮書。這份經濟現狀報告顯示，隨著夏季的推移，美國經濟的衰退程度似乎在逐步下降。

雖然經濟依然低迷，但是一些地方聯儲銀行報告當地經濟下滑的速度持續放緩，還有一些地區銀行表示當地的經濟活動已趨於穩定。

褐皮書旨在讓聯儲官員對全美各地的經濟狀況有一個整體性的感知，以準備8月11至12日召開的下一次貨幣政策會議。

報告顯示，美國的零售業銷售依然低迷不振，消費者仍然對價格頗為敏感，旅遊業的狀況不及上年同期。

褐皮書還稱：“幾個地區銀行指出消費者仍側重採購較便宜的生活必需品，高價商品的銷售狀況依然疲軟。”聯儲指出，高價商品銷售整體疲軟中唯一的例外是二手車。

美國製造業的狀況略有改善，聯儲所接觸的製造企業表示，未來6至12個月中製造業存在復興的可能性。各地的銀行信貸狀況依然與上年同期持平或有所惡化。

褐皮書中最引人關注的一個變化可能是整個美國的企業都在尋找削減工人薪酬和福利的“創新性方法”。聯儲報告指出：“勞動力市場的疲軟基本上排除了薪酬上漲的可能性，多數地區的薪酬和福利維持穩定或有所下降。”

一些經濟學家指出，只要勞動者的薪酬受到壓制，通縮的風險將不會消除。聯儲報告對勞動力市場的判斷是依然低迷不振。

所有地方聯儲都表達了對商業房地產市場的擔心，而住宅房地產是最新褐皮書中的一個亮點。多數地方聯儲報告，當地的住宅房地產市場已顯露改善跡象，雖然目前這些市場仍處於谷底。

今天發佈的褐皮書報告由波士頓聯儲銀行的工作人員編撰，其引用的經濟數據都是在7月20日之前採集的。

The Beige Book -July 29, 2009

Fed 的退場策略

在辜朝明-總體經濟聖杯中，所談財政政策的使用中，當經濟是處於資產負表衰退時，一旦在經濟看似回穩之際，即過早的進行財政政策的退出，將使得經濟"再次"陷入衰退。因為重建資產負債表的過程將是漫長的，這段期間唯有靠政府的財政支出來支撐不足的民間投資。

若依其觀點，則目前在討論之財政退出政策之時機將格外重要。美國1937及日本的1997在仍處於資產負債表衰退中，即倉促縮減財政赤字的後果，令經濟體陷入另一個崩跌。

------------------

News from wsj: 貝南克:美聯儲掌握解除極端政策措施的手段

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)主席貝南克(Ben
Bernanke)對Fed用以解除危機應對舉措的手段作出描述﹐但同時也向國會議員明確表示美國經濟仍相當疲弱﹐收緊貨幣政策的時機還不成熟。

....
貝南克在向美國眾議院金融服務委員會(House Financial Services
Committee)發表預先準備的陳詞中表示﹐在當前經濟較為疲弱、而通貨膨脹壓力又有限的情況下﹐貨幣政策的重點仍集中在推動經濟復甦方面。

但他同時表示﹐重要的是確保公眾和市場相信﹐Fed將在必要情況下穩妥和適時地解除為應對金融危機和經濟衰退所採取的極端政策措施﹐以避免刺激政策可能引發未來通貨膨脹上升的風險。

貝南克表示﹐Fed已開始逐步解除在危機期間實施的一些緊急措施﹐鑒於目前Fed多數流動性工具的定價仍高於正常信用價差﹐因此﹐從某種程度上來說﹐這種解除政策的過程還將得以持續。貝南克稱﹐目前Fed向銀行及其他機構提供的貸款總額已由2008年年底時的約1.5萬億美元降至6000億美元以下。

但貝南克還指出﹐如果在退出過程結束前﹐經濟形勢證明需要採取緊縮性貨幣政策﹐Fed也有許多能在必要時提高市場利率的工具。

....
儘管貝南克對經濟和市場作出更為樂觀的評估﹐但他同時指出﹐金融體系依然吃緊﹐勞動力市場進一步走軟。他稱﹐經濟下滑的步伐似乎已顯著放緩﹐金融市場狀況也有明顯改善。

......他警告稱﹐近期消費支出企穩的趨勢或許難以持久。與此同時﹐他敦促國會議員開始研究財政刺激措施的退出策略﹐必須從現在就開始規劃如何令財政預算恢復平衡的退出策略。

貝南克稱﹐Fed未來的任務是繼續加強金融體系的監管﹐和增強金融體系的彈性。此外﹐貝南克表示﹐Fed正在密切關注商業房地產市場﹐已注意到借款人申請貸款再融資面臨很大困難。貝南克說商業地產市場可能也會遭遇與住宅市場一樣的止贖權問題。他表示﹐借款人通過銀行或證券化市場對其貸款進行再融資時均遇到了困難。

因此﹐Fed正敦促銀行為信譽良好的借款人提供再融資﹐與此同時﹐還正在通過接受新的和問題商業地產抵押貸款支持債券作為定期資產支持證券貸款工具(Term
Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, 簡稱TALF)的抵押品﹐從而加快證券化市場的啟動。他表示﹐Fed希望開放抵押貸款支持證券市場﹐這是商業地產市場融資的一個重要渠道。

FOMC Minutes

Minutes of the June FOMC meeting:

Economic Outlook:

.........

The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. The staff also revised up its projection for the increase in real GDP in 2010, to a pace above the growth rate of potential GDP. As a consequence, the staff projected that the unemployment rate would rise further in 2009 but would edge down in 2010. Meanwhile, the staff forecast for inflation was marked up. Recent readings on core consumer prices had come in a bit higher than expected; in addition, the rise in energy prices, less-favorable import prices, and the absence of any downward movement in inflation expectations led the staff to raise its medium-term inflation outlook. Nonetheless, the low level of resource utilization was projected to result in an appreciable deceleration in core consumer prices through 2010.

Looking ahead to 2011 and 2012, the staff anticipated that financial markets and institutions would continue to recuperate, monetary policy would remain stimulative, fiscal stimulus would be fading, and inflation expectations would be relatively well anchored. Under such conditions, the staff projected that real GDP would expand at a rate well above that of its potential, that the unemployment rate would decline significantly, and that overall and core personal consumption expenditures inflation would stay low.

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections,
2009–11 and over the longer run

----------------

related news: 美聯儲官員預計經濟衰退不久將會結束(wsj)

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)最新公佈的會議紀要顯示﹐Fed官員們上個月認為﹐長達18個月的經濟衰退不久就將結束﹐但官員們擔心經濟仍然較容易受到衝擊。Fed官員對進一步擴大資產收購規模的提議似乎反應冷淡﹐認為此舉可能進一步激化通貨膨脹預期。

Fed官員們上調了對2009年年內至2010年的經濟預期﹐他們預計今年美國經濟將小幅下滑﹐但明年將實現溫和增長﹐增幅超過2%。官員們預計2010年經濟增速將加快﹐達到4%左右。但是他們認為失業率將超過此前的預期﹐至少有一位官員預計明年失業率會突破10%。

根據週三發佈的6月23-24日Fed會議的會議紀要內容﹐官員們認為在4月Fed會議和6月Fed會議之間公佈的經濟數據顯示﹐經濟萎縮速度放緩﹐經濟活動的下滑勢頭可能在不久後就將停止。正如普遍預期所料﹐Fed在該次會議上將聯邦基金目標利率維持在接近於零的水平﹐並承諾將在較長一段時間內把利率維持在歷史低位。

考慮到經濟復甦緩慢且缺少通貨膨脹壓力﹐Fed官員們在週三公佈的會議紀要中又重申了上述立場。但是在會議紀要中﹐官員們警告稱經濟復甦之路不會一帆風順﹐尤其是在勞動力市場。雖然經濟的下行風險已經減弱﹐但這種風險仍然巨大﹐不可忽視。Fed稱﹐與會官員們對勞動力市場的情況尤為擔心。

考慮到經濟復甦的速度可能相當緩慢﹐多數市場人士預計就業市場在一段時間內都會保持低迷。目前美國的失業率為9.5%﹐是26年來的最高水平。根據Fed隨會議紀要一同發佈的最新季度經濟預期﹐2009年年底美國的失業率料將達到9.7%-10.5%。剔除三個最高的預期和三個最低預期﹐Fed官員們認為到今年年底失業率將在9.8%-10.1%之間。其中一位官員預計2010年失業率將達到10.6%﹐不過大多數官員都認為失業率在明年將會回落。

Fed官員們認為﹐金融市場仍面臨持續風險。雖然市場已經有所回暖﹐但基本的金融環境依然脆弱﹐未來幾個季度銀行的貸款業務可能面臨高額損失。除了調高今明兩年的經濟預期並預計2010年經濟將強勁增長外﹐Fed官員預計在可預見的將來﹐通貨膨脹將出現回升。

Fed預期﹐到今年年底﹐衡量通貨膨脹的個人消費支出價格指數較上年升幅將徘徊在1%-1.4%﹐2010年升幅將在1.2%-1.8%之間﹐2011年將上升1.1%-2%。會議紀要稱﹐通貨膨脹在中短期內大幅上升的可能性很小﹐但鑒於有跡象顯示經濟活動正在企穩﹐多數與會官員都認為通貨膨脹下行風險降低。

6月份的會議紀要還暗示官員們不會急於調整資產收購規模。根據目前的資產收購計劃﹐Fed將收購3,000億美元的長期美國國債和總額為1.45萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。

Fed 維持零利率不變

FOMC-聯邦公開市場操作委員會於24. 25召開, 先前市場最關心的是利率是否可能調升? 是否存在通膨之威脅? 及Fed對經濟現況的評估? 發佈內容如下:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

--------------
此次聲明, 符合市場事前的大部份預期, 主要內容摘譯如下:

• 經濟衰退步伐減緩，金融市場近幾個月來亦較過去逐漸改善，但整體經濟仍較弱。房市雖趨穩，但仍受到失業率增加及信用緊縮的影響。然政府的各項政策將能使得經濟及金融市場逐步邁向成長。
  
  
• 與上次聲明最大的不同在於對通膨的看法，上次會議警告，嚴重衰退可能引發通縮。本次聲明提到，雖然近期能源及原物料價格上漲，但經濟的衰退價格上揚不易，故對通貨膨脹難成威脅。因而預期通膨將會「受到抑制」持續一段期間，故將聯邦利率維持於0~0.25%，且將維持極低水平「相當一段時間」。表明壓低利率的決心及回應市場對通膨的隱憂。
  
  
• 繼續購買債券，以壓低房貸與消費者貸款利率；持續執行今年3月所規劃的在年底前購買1.25兆美元房利美、房地美房貸債券; 和2000億美元機構債; 並在秋季前收購3000億美元長期公債都將繼續。 但這些行動也將因經濟狀況改變而進行調整。

Ben Bernanke speaks-6/3

Testimony
Before the Committee on the Budget. June 3, 2009

Current economic and financial conditions and the federal budget

Economic Developments and Outlook

.....However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing. Notably, consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, has been roughly flat since the turn of the year, and consumer sentiment has improved. In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.

Activity in the housing market, after a long period of decline, has also shown some signs of bottoming. Sales of existing homes have been fairly stable since late last year, and sales of new homes seem to have flattened out in the past couple of monthly readings, though both remain at depressed levels. Meanwhile, construction of new homes has been sufficiently restrained to allow the backlog of unsold new homes to decline--a precondition for any recovery in homebuilding.

Businesses remain very cautious and continue to reduce their workforces and capital investments. On a more positive note, firms are making progress in shedding the unwanted inventories that they accumulated following last fall's sharp downturn in sales. The Commerce Department estimates that the pace of inventory liquidation quickened in the first quarter, accounting for a sizable portion of the reported decline in real GDP in that period. As inventory stocks move into better alignment with sales, firms should become more willing to increase production.

We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year. Our assessments that consumer spending and housing demand will stabilize and that the pace of inventory liquidation will slow are key building blocks of that forecast. .....

...Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further. We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes.

In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. The slack in resource utilization remains sizable, and, not withstanding recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities, cost pressures generally remain subdued. As a consequence, inflation is likely to move down some over the next year relative to its pace in 2008. That said, improving economic conditions and stable inflation expectations should limit further declines in inflation.


Conditions in Financial Markets

.....Mortgage rates and spreads have also been reduced by the Federal Reserve's program of purchasing agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. However, in recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen. These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.


Fiscal Policy in the Current Economic and Financial Environment

......The increases in spending and reductions in taxes associated with the fiscal package and the financial stabilization program, along with the losses in revenues and increases in income-support payments associated with the weak economy, will widen the federal budget deficit substantially this year. The Administration recently submitted a proposed budget that projects the federal deficit to reach about $1.8 trillion this fiscal year before declining to $1.3 trillion in 2010 and roughly $900 billion in 2011. As a consequence of this elevated level of borrowing, the ratio of federal debt held by the public to nominal GDP is likely to move up from about 40 percent before the onset of the financial crisis to about 70 percent in 2011. These developments would leave the debt-to-GDP ratio at its highest level since the early 1950s, the years following the massive debt buildup during World War II..

related news: 貝南克:經濟將在今年晚些時候恢復增長