10 ETF Trends Predictions for 2011

10 ETF Trends Predictions for 2011

Just like we did last year, it’s time again to go into the dark closet, get out the crystal ball, dust it off and look inside. What does the exchange traded fund (ETF) industry have in store for us for 2011? And more importantly, will we fare as well with our predictions as we did this year?

1. Small-caps will dust large-caps. Historically, small-caps have outperformed large-caps coming out of economic downturns. That’s been true so far this time around, too. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 as the economic recovery gathers steam.

2. Commodity demand will intensify. Continuing what they started in 2010, commodities will continue to be hot in 2011. A combination of a growing population, a rising emerging market middle class and investment demand will continue to support prices.

3. The Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. Okay, we predicted this one last year and we were a bit early. But this year, as the economy gets better, the Fed will raise rates. If you’re holding long-term bonds, be prepared to act when it happens.

4. The United States is where it’s at. The conventional wisdom has lately held that if you don’t have an allocation overseas, you’re missing something. While emerging markets turned flat in the fourth quarter, the United States gained a fair bit of strength in the last quarter of 2010 that we think will hold in the new year thanks to improving earnings, corporate cash and investor confidence in the domestic economy.

5. Tech ETFs and the NASDAQ will be stars. Once again, the NASDAQ is the year’s top-performing index, gaining 20% this year. But after jumping more than 53% in 2009, this year’s numbers look decidedly lackluster. In 2011, look for technology ETFs to become market stars once again, thanks to an explosion of personal devices and a resumption of corporate IT spending.

6. There will be a physically-backed ETF explosion. No longer content to offer physically-backed gold, silver, palladium and platinum ETFs, providers will launch a slew of other physical funds. Most hotly anticipated are the aluminum and copper funds, which are still in registration. We predict that they’ll get the go-ahead in the first quarter.

7. ETFs will get even cheaper. Though there will be an eventual bottom to both ETF expense ratios and trading commission costs, we’re not there yet. TD Ameritrade’s move to offer 100 ETFs commission-free is a first step – we predict we’ll see even more of the same in the coming year. And those price wars? Look out below for falling expense ratios!

8. Actively managed ETFs catch on. Active management has struggled to really catch on with investors. But one area of active management that proved its worth in 2010 was fixed-income. Having the flexibility to make portfolio adjustments as economic conditions change proved to be a valuable commodity this year, and we think investors will get wise to this and give active bond funds a boost. Active management first burst on the scene in April 2008, so we think investors will be looking them with a keen eye.

9. ETF critics will back off. This year, the Kauffman report, Bogan report and BusinessWeek’s article about commodity ETFs took the industry to task. Although there will be increased and welcome critical thinking when it comes to ETFs, we predict that people will finally get educated and stop being scared of them.

10. ETF assets will continue the uptrend and hit $1.5 trillion. ETF assets finally hit $1 trillion in late December. We predict that they’ll not only stay there, but they’ll build on that. A recent study showed that most investors don’t know what an ETF is; if they were able to hit $1 trillion with so few knowing, imagine the possibilities as more people learn.

Here’s to a great 2011!

哈佛基金投資 偏愛ETF

From udn/經濟日報:

根據哈佛大學在本月中旬送交美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的最新資料顯示，到去年底為止，哈佛校產基金前十大持股中，有高達九檔均為ETF（指數股票型基金），其中包括追蹤台股指數的ETF，且讓哈佛校產基金總資產在半年成長17%，突破300億美元。

哈佛大學為全美最富有的學校，所成立的哈佛管理公司負責管理校方逾300億美元的哈佛校產基金，投資部位龐大，甚受市場矚目。

哈佛校產基金的年報結算時間為每年6月底，去年6月底的總資產規模為256.2億美元，日前哈佛校產基金最新送交證交所的資料顯示，受惠於全球股市反彈，截至去年12月底的總資產規模已突破300億美元。

所揭露於公開市場交易股票與基金資料顯示，前十大持股除了全美最大鐵路公司Burlington Northern Santa Fe Co.（BNSF）股票外，其餘均為ETF，尤其以iShares安碩系列的ETF為主。

進一步分析這九檔ETFs發現，投資金額最高的是以新興市場為主的iShares安碩的MCSI Emerging Markets ETF（EEM US），投資金額為3.88億美元；其次為中國股市為主的iShares FTSE／Xinhua China 25 ETF（富時新華25ETF，FXI US），有3.43億美元，以及投資於巴西股市的iShares MSCI Brazil ETF （EWZ US）為2.57億美元。

寶來投信指數投資處副總黃昭棠表示，值得留意的是，排名第十名為美國掛牌、投資台股的iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF（EWT US ），投資金額達3,648萬美元，顯示台灣的投資價值也受到著名長春藤學院的關愛。

黃昭棠指出，哈佛校產基金至去年第四季總資產增加17%，ETF投資部位更達26%之多，顯示最大功臣便是ETF，到去年底投資於ETFs的總投資金額共計16.6億美元，無論投資於新興市場或巴西、印度與台灣等各別國家的ETF，均貼近各地股市而揚升，逐漸擺脫金融海嘯所造成的損失。

黃昭棠也指出，哈佛校產基金的投資組合，反映出國際機構法人或退休基金的長線投資趨勢以ETF為主要核心，ETF的市場資訊透明、管理費用較為低廉，在長時間的複利效果下，較具有長期投資效益，也值得一般投資人作為核心資產配置。