FOMC Minutes

Minutes of the June FOMC meeting:

Economic Outlook:

.........

The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. The staff also revised up its projection for the increase in real GDP in 2010, to a pace above the growth rate of potential GDP. As a consequence, the staff projected that the unemployment rate would rise further in 2009 but would edge down in 2010. Meanwhile, the staff forecast for inflation was marked up. Recent readings on core consumer prices had come in a bit higher than expected; in addition, the rise in energy prices, less-favorable import prices, and the absence of any downward movement in inflation expectations led the staff to raise its medium-term inflation outlook. Nonetheless, the low level of resource utilization was projected to result in an appreciable deceleration in core consumer prices through 2010.

Looking ahead to 2011 and 2012, the staff anticipated that financial markets and institutions would continue to recuperate, monetary policy would remain stimulative, fiscal stimulus would be fading, and inflation expectations would be relatively well anchored. Under such conditions, the staff projected that real GDP would expand at a rate well above that of its potential, that the unemployment rate would decline significantly, and that overall and core personal consumption expenditures inflation would stay low.

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections,
2009–11 and over the longer run

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related news: 美聯儲官員預計經濟衰退不久將會結束(wsj)

美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)最新公佈的會議紀要顯示﹐Fed官員們上個月認為﹐長達18個月的經濟衰退不久就將結束﹐但官員們擔心經濟仍然較容易受到衝擊。Fed官員對進一步擴大資產收購規模的提議似乎反應冷淡﹐認為此舉可能進一步激化通貨膨脹預期。

Fed官員們上調了對2009年年內至2010年的經濟預期﹐他們預計今年美國經濟將小幅下滑﹐但明年將實現溫和增長﹐增幅超過2%。官員們預計2010年經濟增速將加快﹐達到4%左右。但是他們認為失業率將超過此前的預期﹐至少有一位官員預計明年失業率會突破10%。

根據週三發佈的6月23-24日Fed會議的會議紀要內容﹐官員們認為在4月Fed會議和6月Fed會議之間公佈的經濟數據顯示﹐經濟萎縮速度放緩﹐經濟活動的下滑勢頭可能在不久後就將停止。正如普遍預期所料﹐Fed在該次會議上將聯邦基金目標利率維持在接近於零的水平﹐並承諾將在較長一段時間內把利率維持在歷史低位。

考慮到經濟復甦緩慢且缺少通貨膨脹壓力﹐Fed官員們在週三公佈的會議紀要中又重申了上述立場。但是在會議紀要中﹐官員們警告稱經濟復甦之路不會一帆風順﹐尤其是在勞動力市場。雖然經濟的下行風險已經減弱﹐但這種風險仍然巨大﹐不可忽視。Fed稱﹐與會官員們對勞動力市場的情況尤為擔心。

考慮到經濟復甦的速度可能相當緩慢﹐多數市場人士預計就業市場在一段時間內都會保持低迷。目前美國的失業率為9.5%﹐是26年來的最高水平。根據Fed隨會議紀要一同發佈的最新季度經濟預期﹐2009年年底美國的失業率料將達到9.7%-10.5%。剔除三個最高的預期和三個最低預期﹐Fed官員們認為到今年年底失業率將在9.8%-10.1%之間。其中一位官員預計2010年失業率將達到10.6%﹐不過大多數官員都認為失業率在明年將會回落。

Fed官員們認為﹐金融市場仍面臨持續風險。雖然市場已經有所回暖﹐但基本的金融環境依然脆弱﹐未來幾個季度銀行的貸款業務可能面臨高額損失。除了調高今明兩年的經濟預期並預計2010年經濟將強勁增長外﹐Fed官員預計在可預見的將來﹐通貨膨脹將出現回升。

Fed預期﹐到今年年底﹐衡量通貨膨脹的個人消費支出價格指數較上年升幅將徘徊在1%-1.4%﹐2010年升幅將在1.2%-1.8%之間﹐2011年將上升1.1%-2%。會議紀要稱﹐通貨膨脹在中短期內大幅上升的可能性很小﹐但鑒於有跡象顯示經濟活動正在企穩﹐多數與會官員都認為通貨膨脹下行風險降低。

6月份的會議紀要還暗示官員們不會急於調整資產收購規模。根據目前的資產收購計劃﹐Fed將收購3,000億美元的長期美國國債和總額為1.45萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。