彙整至6/30之數據, 在其所觀察的領先指標中, 所有數據都較先前幾個月前有些許改善, 說明了股票市場及信用市場略高於年初時的信心. VIX 從28.92降至26.35, 移至其正常時期的區間, 而TED spread 和OAS 亦持續往正常區期邁進. 只是5月份的略為平坦的股票市場並未能反應這些數據的改善.
後落指標：大多仍持續疲弱. 然而PCE(個人消費支出)卻是自2月份以來首次進入其長期正常區間.
----------------------
Summary of current state (as of 6/30/2009)
Leading indicators — All leading indicators showed some improvement over previous months, indicating somewhat higher confidence in equity and credit markets compared to the beginning of this year. VIX moved into its typical range, decreasing from 28.92 to 26.35, while the TED spread narrowed and OAS continued to move closer to its typical range. However, these improvements did not translate into returns, as the U.S. equity markets have trended flat since the beginning of May (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).
Lagging indicators — Because these indicators tend to lag behind the leading indicators, most continue to show signs of weakness. NF PAY shows that the job market remains weak. However, PCE – a measure of consumer spending – increased into its typical long term range for the first time since February.
沒有留言:
張貼留言