2009年7月23日 星期四

Feldstein: Risk of Double Dip

Feldstein: Hovard 大學經濟系教授, 也是NBER(美國國家經濟研究院)前主席及雷根總統的經濟顧問. 日前於Bloomberg訪問中談到, 美國目前第3季經濟數據雖然看似已漸好轉, 然而在第4季將可能因為政府注資過早的退場及公司結束存貨回補, 致使尚未回穩的經濟體再次陷入衰退.


From Bloomberg: Harvard’s Feldstein Sees Risk of ‘Double-Dip’ Recession in U.S.

... “There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news,” [Martin] Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Reagan administration adviser, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “We could slide down again in the fourth quarter.”

The economy could “flatten out” or “even be positive” in the third quarter, and then it’s likely to contract again in the last three months of the year as the effects of the federal stimulus program wear off and companies finish rebuilding inventories, he said.

“There isn’t going to be enough to sustain a really solid recovery,” he said, even though recent data has provided some “good news” on the economy.

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