美國線上財經網站DailyFinance報導，華爾街許多名嘴都是靠預測重大事件而聲名大噪，但根據最新的研究結果顯示，名嘴不等於預測精準度，包括「新末日博士」盧比尼（Nouriel Roubini）與「華爾街天后」惠特妮（Meredith Whitney）在市場預測上經常看走眼。
報導指出，華爾街有些專家因精確預測某一重大事件而竄紅，甚至被奉為投資名嘴，經常針對股市、債市與房市發表評論與預測。但是針對這些名嘴提供的專業意見，投資人聽聽就好，不要盲目追隨，不然損失的是投資人自己的荷包。
根據《波士頓環球報》所做的調查發現，許多因大膽預測重大事件而被譽為先知的分析師，其實在預測準確度上普遍都偏低，有些甚至可能就只準過那麼一次。
華爾街這類名嘴還不少，專攻銀行業分析的惠特妮曾贏得華爾街天后的美名，她是少數幾個能預先看到金融危機的專家，但在市場預測上她的命中率偏低，根據彭博的資料，到去年年中她發表的股市預測中僅6個命中，失準的有13個，甚至在她的強項金融股部份也出現高失誤，標普5百金融類股的81檔個股股價預測上，她的命中率僅37％。
因預測金融風暴與美國經濟衰退而聞名國際的紐約大學教授盧比尼，近幾年在市場預測上同樣失誤連連，包括他曾斷言2009年油價持續低迷，每桶不會超過40美元，但該年底油價飆至80美元，以及2009年3月他說標普5百指數會跌破600點，但該年底美股大盤收盤指數達1,115點，全年飆漲23.5％。
前美林明星分析師羅森伯格（David Rosenberg）也是早早就發覺金融危機的預兆，但之後始終看空美國經濟復甦，與實際情況相反。羅森伯格目前為Gluskin Scheff首席經濟學家。
Europacific分析師席夫（Peter Schiff）因準確預測金融危機而一砲而紅，但對美國經濟復甦卻是完全看走眼，儘管事實已擺在眼前，他至今還堅稱經濟狀況比2008年還糟，甚至瀕臨蕭條。
source: http://news.chinatimes.com/world/11050401/122011012000219.html
2011年1月20日 星期四
2011年1月18日 星期二
混合型基金鼻祖—惠靈頓基金
1815年，惠靈頓公爵（Duke of Wellington）在滑鐵盧依靠優勢兵力打敗拿破侖，成為英國歷史上最為著名的軍事家，后任英國第25、27任首相，也是世界上唯一一位獲得7國元帥軍銜者。1935年7月11日，當沃特·L·摩根打算給規模已超過50萬美元的基金換一個更響亮的名字時，作為“鐵公爵”的崇拜者，他選擇了惠靈頓這個名字。惠靈頓基金，是世界上第一只將資產分散投資於股票、債券的混合型基金，至今仍是世界上最為著名、規模最大的混合型基金之一。
作為普林斯頓大學的高材生，沃特·L·摩根在1925年創立了自己的會計師事務所，并隨即將業務從稅務咨詢拓展到為客戶提供投資咨詢服務。摩根對於資產管理興趣越來越濃厚，并開始考慮通過集中管理多個個人資產，實現規模投資效應。他以敏銳的嗅覺意識到，投資者需要的是分散化投資、組合管理、便利而不是復雜性，相信共同基金將會是一個很好的商業契機。
1928年7月1日，電力證券公司（Power Securities Company）正式成立，初始資金為10萬美元，這就是惠靈頓基金的前身。與當時其他8只開放式基金將資金全部投資於股票有所不同，該公司是第一個打破慣例把資金投資在股票與債券上的共同管理基金。摩根將60%～70%的資產投資於各類普通股票和優選股，而將30％～40％資產投資於債券或現金等固定收益工具。
雖然，平衡型基金開創了一種全新的投資風格，但是，“咆哮的二十年代”顯然不是平衡型基金受歡迎的時代。不過，摩根依然堅持著自己均衡的投資風格，堅持在債券及現金上的資產配置。組合報告顯示，1929年8月摩根就開始降低組合中普通股票的持倉比例，到了9月初，其股票倉位從7月底的8成迅速降低至4成，他還在組合中保留了4成的現金，保證投資組合擁有充分的流動性。1929年10月，紐約爆發了歷史上最為嚴重的股市崩盤，該公司是為數不多損失較小的基金之一。穩健的風格贏得了市場的逐漸認可，到了1929年底，規模增長到19.5萬美元。
直到1935年，摩根將其更名為惠靈頓基金（Wellington Fund）并於1958年，成為由摩根一手培養的基金行業傳奇人物約翰·博格爾創立的先鋒基金家族中一員。
經歷了二戰和大蕭條，1960年代，惠靈頓基金逐漸演變為一只價值導向型基金。1974年，約翰·博格爾創立了先鋒集團，惠靈頓基金正式更名為先鋒惠靈頓基金，博格爾進行的一系列改革進一步提高了基金的管理效率并降低了費用，惠靈頓基金開始尋求包括中國在內的全球化投資機會。
目前，惠靈頓基金已成為規模最大的平衡型基金，截至2010年10月6日，惠靈頓基金規模達到505.4億美元。持有超過100只股票和400只各類債券，入選2009年福布斯雜志最值得購買基金榜。
截至2009年3月31日，先鋒惠靈頓基金近40年年均回報達到9.15％。
source: http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110117/KDUG0KPRL1J7A.shtml
作為普林斯頓大學的高材生，沃特·L·摩根在1925年創立了自己的會計師事務所，并隨即將業務從稅務咨詢拓展到為客戶提供投資咨詢服務。摩根對於資產管理興趣越來越濃厚，并開始考慮通過集中管理多個個人資產，實現規模投資效應。他以敏銳的嗅覺意識到，投資者需要的是分散化投資、組合管理、便利而不是復雜性，相信共同基金將會是一個很好的商業契機。
1928年7月1日，電力證券公司（Power Securities Company）正式成立，初始資金為10萬美元，這就是惠靈頓基金的前身。與當時其他8只開放式基金將資金全部投資於股票有所不同，該公司是第一個打破慣例把資金投資在股票與債券上的共同管理基金。摩根將60%～70%的資產投資於各類普通股票和優選股，而將30％～40％資產投資於債券或現金等固定收益工具。
雖然，平衡型基金開創了一種全新的投資風格，但是，“咆哮的二十年代”顯然不是平衡型基金受歡迎的時代。不過，摩根依然堅持著自己均衡的投資風格，堅持在債券及現金上的資產配置。組合報告顯示，1929年8月摩根就開始降低組合中普通股票的持倉比例，到了9月初，其股票倉位從7月底的8成迅速降低至4成，他還在組合中保留了4成的現金，保證投資組合擁有充分的流動性。1929年10月，紐約爆發了歷史上最為嚴重的股市崩盤，該公司是為數不多損失較小的基金之一。穩健的風格贏得了市場的逐漸認可，到了1929年底，規模增長到19.5萬美元。
直到1935年，摩根將其更名為惠靈頓基金（Wellington Fund）并於1958年，成為由摩根一手培養的基金行業傳奇人物約翰·博格爾創立的先鋒基金家族中一員。
經歷了二戰和大蕭條，1960年代，惠靈頓基金逐漸演變為一只價值導向型基金。1974年，約翰·博格爾創立了先鋒集團，惠靈頓基金正式更名為先鋒惠靈頓基金，博格爾進行的一系列改革進一步提高了基金的管理效率并降低了費用，惠靈頓基金開始尋求包括中國在內的全球化投資機會。
目前，惠靈頓基金已成為規模最大的平衡型基金，截至2010年10月6日，惠靈頓基金規模達到505.4億美元。持有超過100只股票和400只各類債券，入選2009年福布斯雜志最值得購買基金榜。
截至2009年3月31日，先鋒惠靈頓基金近40年年均回報達到9.15％。
source: http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110117/KDUG0KPRL1J7A.shtml
2011年1月4日 星期二
10 ETF Trends Predictions for 2011
10 ETF Trends Predictions for 2011
Just like we did last year, it’s time again to go into the dark closet, get out the crystal ball, dust it off and look inside. What does the exchange traded fund (ETF) industry have in store for us for 2011? And more importantly, will we fare as well with our predictions as we did this year?
1. Small-caps will dust large-caps. Historically, small-caps have outperformed large-caps coming out of economic downturns. That’s been true so far this time around, too. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 as the economic recovery gathers steam.
2. Commodity demand will intensify. Continuing what they started in 2010, commodities will continue to be hot in 2011. A combination of a growing population, a rising emerging market middle class and investment demand will continue to support prices.
3. The Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. Okay, we predicted this one last year and we were a bit early. But this year, as the economy gets better, the Fed will raise rates. If you’re holding long-term bonds, be prepared to act when it happens.
4. The United States is where it’s at. The conventional wisdom has lately held that if you don’t have an allocation overseas, you’re missing something. While emerging markets turned flat in the fourth quarter, the United States gained a fair bit of strength in the last quarter of 2010 that we think will hold in the new year thanks to improving earnings, corporate cash and investor confidence in the domestic economy.
5. Tech ETFs and the NASDAQ will be stars. Once again, the NASDAQ is the year’s top-performing index, gaining 20% this year. But after jumping more than 53% in 2009, this year’s numbers look decidedly lackluster. In 2011, look for technology ETFs to become market stars once again, thanks to an explosion of personal devices and a resumption of corporate IT spending.
6. There will be a physically-backed ETF explosion. No longer content to offer physically-backed gold, silver, palladium and platinum ETFs, providers will launch a slew of other physical funds. Most hotly anticipated are the aluminum and copper funds, which are still in registration. We predict that they’ll get the go-ahead in the first quarter.
7. ETFs will get even cheaper. Though there will be an eventual bottom to both ETF expense ratios and trading commission costs, we’re not there yet. TD Ameritrade’s move to offer 100 ETFs commission-free is a first step – we predict we’ll see even more of the same in the coming year. And those price wars? Look out below for falling expense ratios!
8. Actively managed ETFs catch on. Active management has struggled to really catch on with investors. But one area of active management that proved its worth in 2010 was fixed-income. Having the flexibility to make portfolio adjustments as economic conditions change proved to be a valuable commodity this year, and we think investors will get wise to this and give active bond funds a boost. Active management first burst on the scene in April 2008, so we think investors will be looking them with a keen eye.
9. ETF critics will back off. This year, the Kauffman report, Bogan report and BusinessWeek’s article about commodity ETFs took the industry to task. Although there will be increased and welcome critical thinking when it comes to ETFs, we predict that people will finally get educated and stop being scared of them.
10. ETF assets will continue the uptrend and hit $1.5 trillion. ETF assets finally hit $1 trillion in late December. We predict that they’ll not only stay there, but they’ll build on that. A recent study showed that most investors don’t know what an ETF is; if they were able to hit $1 trillion with so few knowing, imagine the possibilities as more people learn.
Here’s to a great 2011!
Just like we did last year, it’s time again to go into the dark closet, get out the crystal ball, dust it off and look inside. What does the exchange traded fund (ETF) industry have in store for us for 2011? And more importantly, will we fare as well with our predictions as we did this year?
1. Small-caps will dust large-caps. Historically, small-caps have outperformed large-caps coming out of economic downturns. That’s been true so far this time around, too. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 as the economic recovery gathers steam.
2. Commodity demand will intensify. Continuing what they started in 2010, commodities will continue to be hot in 2011. A combination of a growing population, a rising emerging market middle class and investment demand will continue to support prices.
3. The Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. Okay, we predicted this one last year and we were a bit early. But this year, as the economy gets better, the Fed will raise rates. If you’re holding long-term bonds, be prepared to act when it happens.
4. The United States is where it’s at. The conventional wisdom has lately held that if you don’t have an allocation overseas, you’re missing something. While emerging markets turned flat in the fourth quarter, the United States gained a fair bit of strength in the last quarter of 2010 that we think will hold in the new year thanks to improving earnings, corporate cash and investor confidence in the domestic economy.
5. Tech ETFs and the NASDAQ will be stars. Once again, the NASDAQ is the year’s top-performing index, gaining 20% this year. But after jumping more than 53% in 2009, this year’s numbers look decidedly lackluster. In 2011, look for technology ETFs to become market stars once again, thanks to an explosion of personal devices and a resumption of corporate IT spending.
6. There will be a physically-backed ETF explosion. No longer content to offer physically-backed gold, silver, palladium and platinum ETFs, providers will launch a slew of other physical funds. Most hotly anticipated are the aluminum and copper funds, which are still in registration. We predict that they’ll get the go-ahead in the first quarter.
7. ETFs will get even cheaper. Though there will be an eventual bottom to both ETF expense ratios and trading commission costs, we’re not there yet. TD Ameritrade’s move to offer 100 ETFs commission-free is a first step – we predict we’ll see even more of the same in the coming year. And those price wars? Look out below for falling expense ratios!
8. Actively managed ETFs catch on. Active management has struggled to really catch on with investors. But one area of active management that proved its worth in 2010 was fixed-income. Having the flexibility to make portfolio adjustments as economic conditions change proved to be a valuable commodity this year, and we think investors will get wise to this and give active bond funds a boost. Active management first burst on the scene in April 2008, so we think investors will be looking them with a keen eye.
9. ETF critics will back off. This year, the Kauffman report, Bogan report and BusinessWeek’s article about commodity ETFs took the industry to task. Although there will be increased and welcome critical thinking when it comes to ETFs, we predict that people will finally get educated and stop being scared of them.
10. ETF assets will continue the uptrend and hit $1.5 trillion. ETF assets finally hit $1 trillion in late December. We predict that they’ll not only stay there, but they’ll build on that. A recent study showed that most investors don’t know what an ETF is; if they were able to hit $1 trillion with so few knowing, imagine the possibilities as more people learn.
Here’s to a great 2011!
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