2009年3月19日 星期四

Fed 將大規模收購國債

FOMC press release 內容



Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments.

即:
1.維持聯邦利率在0-0.25%.
2.將藉由增加買進房貸擔保證券(mortgage-backed securities)7500億美元, 今年以來收購房利美(Fannie Mae)與房地美(Freddie Mac)的擔保債券總額達到1.25 兆美元。目的以降低房貸利率及振興房市.
3.並擴大收購「二房」發行的債券2000億美元. 比原先的1,000 億美元增加一倍至2,000 億美元.
4.為改善信用市場的情況, 在未來六個月將收購至多3,000億美元長期美國國債.
整體規模將上達1.15兆美元.

依wsj , 此訊息使得美國國債大幅上漲。10年期美國國債收益率錄得逾20年來的最大單日跌幅。

Fed成為今年繼英國央行(Bank of England)和日本央行(Bank of Japan)之後第三家收購政府債券以增加貨幣供應抗擊經濟衰退的主要央行。

2009年3月17日 星期二

2月份房屋開工回升

U.S. Census Bureau 3/17所公佈之二月份建築許可及新屋開工雙雙回升.

建築許可BUILDING PERMITS : 
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 547,000. This is 3.0 percent (±3.5%)* above the revised January rate of 531,000, but is 44.2 percent (±1.2%) below the revised February 2008 estimate of 981,000.

Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 373,000; this is 11.0 percent (±2.1%) above the January figure of 336,000.
新屋開工HOUSING STARTS:

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000. This is 22.2 percent (±13.8%) abovethe revised January estimate of 477,000, but is 47.3 percent (±5.3%) below the revised February 2008 rate of 1,107,000.

Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 357,000; this is 1.1 percent (±11.0%)* above the January figure of 353,000.The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 212,000.

Calculated Risk: One month does not make a trend - and the graph(above) shows this is just a slight increase in total starts (and single family starts are basically flat with the record low). 

Briefing: The outlook for housing had started to improve in the late summer. Existing and new home sales were stabilizing. The outlook for housing now depends a great deal on highly unpredictable political actions and an improvement in the economic national mood. The outlook is certainly not good, but there is still a chance that actions are taken to stabilize the housing industry at current low levels of activity.

3月份NAHB Housing Market Index持平


Builder Sentiment Unchanged In March .三月份房市建築業者之市場信心與二月相同.

3/16由NAHB(National Association of Home Builders)公佈之Wells Fargo Housing Market Index(HMI)維持在9, 與二月份數字相同. 一月份該數字為8. 此為連續五個月數字介於8.與9.間


NAHB Chairman Joe Robson 提到, 房屋建築業者希望近期的經濟振興計畫以及對於首次購屋者的稅賦優惠能對消費者的行為及房屋市場有正面的效應. 但目前仍無法清楚估計能有多大的助益, 尤其當建築業者發覺可能的潛在購買者, 因為對於未來經濟及工作的不確定性, 都會對房市造成造成影響.


Note:此數字在50以下代表較多的建築業者對於銷售情況偏負面看法.

2009年3月16日 星期一

Bernanke對市場的看法

擷取Bernanke 3/10於Concil on Fordign Relation 演講中,對於何時結束此次衰退問題之回覆.


Q:Right now do you see the recession we're in likely to end by the end of this year, early next year, or do you think we've hit the bottom yet, or can you say -- make any comments about the depth and length of the recession?

Bernanke:It depends critically on our ability to get the banking system and the financial system more broadly, not necessarily back to 2005, but back to a situation where they -- the markets are reasonably stable, and they are -- they can perform their critical function of providing credit to the economy. If we can do that, then I think that there's a good chance that the recession will end later this year and that 2010 will be a period of growth.
因而整體銀行及金融體系在何時恢復健全, 將是市場何時可結束此波衰退的重要關鍵點.

3/14-金融風暴下的各國經濟與匯率趨勢

3/14-劉憶如演講部份內容: update

*此次雖不會同1930但許多相同的情形都將發生,只是程度上的不同.
1.利率競賽.
2.貿易保護主義的高漲.
3.匯率貶值競賽: 因匯率的貶值具傷害性.相較先前韓元的劇貶,確實讓其在出口相較其它亞洲出口國,仍能維持未減(依本幣計),但就台灣而言,時機已過.再加上考量國內進口因素及避免投機客炒作下,在在都促使央行在匯率操控上更加"小心'.
至於匯率未來的走勢,還是將由"美元市場決定".

*美元是否可能崩盤?
經濟情勢的不安,使美元成為資金的避風港,促使美元走強.美元是否可能崩盤,幾個可觀查的訊號.
1.市場恢復平靜時,可能促使各經濟體回頭省視在大量印鈔後的美元地位及副作用.(以救治病人為例,在急救時任何的用藥不會去考慮副作用,但一旦過了急救,在病情穩定時,就會開始思考這些的副作用要怎麼辦了)
2.四月將召開的G20會議:視會中是否有任何提出對於國際貨幣適用性相關議題. 此可能是對美元存疑的先兆.
3.歐元的表現.

*衰退何時可能結束?
過去30年113次的歷史經驗,平均衰退期約為2年.此次雖然是1930s後最嚴重的衰退,但下的藥也是最重,故兩相折抵下,仍可能預估2年.
另一個可觀查的方向是,美國金融體系的健全與否.在四月底金融壓力測試結果出來後,政府的處理方法及銀行的情況等都可將影響經濟的發展.

*股市目前長期投資價值已浮現:
以美股先前接近6000點計算, 若以10年的期間投資, 報酬約8%. 此對長期投資者已具吸引力。

*計算匯率升貶值時, 應以各貨幣相對美元之計價計算.

劉憶如部落格

2009年3月14日 星期六

Initial Claims-3/7

政府報告顯示﹐上週美國首次申請失業救濟人數出現反彈﹐申請失業救濟的總人數創紀錄新高﹐表明美國勞動力市場嚴重萎縮的狀況未有改善。

美國勞工部(Labor Department)3/5公佈﹐經過季節性因素調整後﹐截至3月7日當週首次申請失業救濟人數增加9,000人﹐至654,000人﹐略高於預計。此前一週首次申請失業救濟人數經修正後為減少25,000人﹐降幅小於初值。

首次申請失業救濟人數的四週平均值增加6,750人﹐至650,000人﹐為連續第七週上升﹐並創下1982年10月以來的最高水平。




最新公佈的失業救濟申請數據預示3月份失業人數或將繼續大幅上升﹐這將導致失業率在8.1%這一25年高點的基礎上進一步上揚。

報告同時顯示﹐截至2月28日當週的持續申請失業救濟人數增加193,000人﹐至5,317,000人﹐創下政府於1967年開始追蹤該數據以來的最高水平。

2月份零售銷售較上月稍呈穩定

美國2月份零售額小幅下降﹐但表現遠優於預期﹐從家具到服裝以及電子產品等多數行業的零售額均有所上升﹐說明經濟衰退沒有完全澆滅消費者的購物熱情。
Census Bureau 3/12(四)公佈﹐2月份零售額(Retail Sales)下降0.1%。經濟學家此前預期為下降0.4%。

同時修正1月份為上升1.8%﹐原數據為上升1.0%。

2月份汽車和零件銷售額下降4.3%。不包括汽車的銷售額上升0.7%﹐升幅遠遠大於經濟學家此前預計的0.1%。

1月份不包括汽車的銷售額經向上修正後為上升1.6%﹐該數據之前曾連續五個月大幅下挫。
雖然市場反應相當正面, 但應該說數字只是"不再惡化"


更長期來看

下圖:自1992年依季節性調整之月零售銷售額變化.