News from udn :
諾貝爾經濟獎得主克魯曼預言，美國經濟可能會在9月前結束衰退。他在倫敦政經學院演說時表示：經濟情況惡化速度似乎在放慢，有理由相信景氣正在回穩。
克魯曼說：「如果日後判定美國正式結束衰退的時間點落在今夏，我不會感到意外。」他指出，聯準會的穩定市場措施已發揮功效，「市場的多項利差已縮小，嚴重的金融危機也似已暫歇。」
克魯曼其實早在上個月22日在香港就說過，美國經濟衰退可能在8月結束。
.....
克魯曼最近才提出警告，美國政府在協助經濟復甦方面做的仍不夠多。他上個月在阿布達比表示，美國的經濟振興措施，充其量只能緩和衰退力道，而不足以刺激復甦。當時他預言，世界經濟會在年底前恢復成長。
也有分析師警告，克魯曼雖然認為美國經濟已停止猛墜之勢，但他也強調，即使出現復甦，「失業率仍將長期走高，也有很多因素顯示，全球經濟將有一段時間仍然不景氣。」
美國自2007年12月陷入衰退，彭博報導，判定美國景氣榮枯的官方機構「全國經濟研究所」（NBER）主席霍爾上周表示，現在就說經濟衰退結束仍嫌太早。
工業生產等數據顯示，下滑速度有所放緩，但5月失業率則升至1983年以來高的9.4%。
克魯曼認為，美國聯準會穩定市場的措施已帶來幫助，但也對聯準會資產負債表的膨脹表示憂心。除了傳統的降息措施之外，聯準會提高不斷融資額度、擴大收購國庫券、抵押貸款證券以及房貸債券，以致資產負債表在去年12月暴增至2.3兆美元，過去兩個月則在2.1兆美元附近浮動。
2009年6月9日 星期二
2009年6月7日 星期日
5/30-當週經濟數據彙整
5/30-當週經濟數據彙整
• List of positive (or less negative) news growing…
• …but 30-year fixed mortgage rate leaps back over 5% this week
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
souce: BMO
• List of positive (or less negative) news growing…
• …but 30-year fixed mortgage rate leaps back over 5% this week
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
souce: BMO
2009年6月6日 星期六
4月消費者信貸減少157億美元
From wsj:
美國4月份消費者信貸在六個月中第五次下降﹐主要受投資者的謹慎情緒影響。這種情緒或許會阻礙經濟的復甦。
據美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)週五公佈的報告顯示﹐4月份消費者信貸餘額經季節性因素調整後較上年同期下降7.4%。4月份消費者信貸餘額大幅下降157億美元﹐至2.524萬億美元﹐為有史以來的第二大降幅﹐較華爾街預計的70億美元降幅高出一倍以上。
3月份消費者信貸餘額下降166億美元﹐降幅創紀錄最高水平﹐初步數據為減少111億美元。2月份消費者信貸餘額下降109億美元﹐初步數據為減少81億美元。
主要反映信用卡融資情況的循環信貸餘額在4月份減少86億美元﹐至9,310億美元﹐降幅為11.0%。3月份為減少88億美元。4月份非循環信貸餘額減少71億美元﹐至1.593億美元﹐降幅5.3%。3月份為減少77億美元﹐降幅為5.8%。
美國4月份消費者信貸在六個月中第五次下降﹐主要受投資者的謹慎情緒影響。這種情緒或許會阻礙經濟的復甦。
據美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)週五公佈的報告顯示﹐4月份消費者信貸餘額經季節性因素調整後較上年同期下降7.4%。4月份消費者信貸餘額大幅下降157億美元﹐至2.524萬億美元﹐為有史以來的第二大降幅﹐較華爾街預計的70億美元降幅高出一倍以上。
3月份消費者信貸餘額下降166億美元﹐降幅創紀錄最高水平﹐初步數據為減少111億美元。2月份消費者信貸餘額下降109億美元﹐初步數據為減少81億美元。
主要反映信用卡融資情況的循環信貸餘額在4月份減少86億美元﹐至9,310億美元﹐降幅為11.0%。3月份為減少88億美元。4月份非循環信貸餘額減少71億美元﹐至1.593億美元﹐降幅5.3%。3月份為減少77億美元﹐降幅為5.8%。
source:bloomberg
5月份失業率 9.4%
美國5月份就業人數下降勢頭顯著放緩﹐這是目前為止顯示嚴重經濟衰退可能正在緩解的最強烈的信號之一。不過當月失業率升至25年新高﹐這提醒人們即使未來數週經濟的確出現企穩﹐然而鑒於勞動力市場疲軟給家庭帶來的壓力﹐經濟也不太可能迅速實現增長。
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週五公佈﹐5月份非農就業人數減少345,000人。5月份非農就業人數降幅創2008年9月以來的最小降幅。
美國就業人數已經連續17個月下降﹐與1981-1982年經濟衰退期間所創下的紀錄相同。
美國5月份失業率上升0.5個百分點﹐至9.4%﹐創1983年8月以來最高水平﹔經濟學家此前的預期為9.2%。很多經濟學家預期﹐失業率很快將超過10%。 (souce:wsj)
下圖(from calculated risk) , 將5月份的失業率與政府"stree test"所設定之情況比較, 可看出即使Q2只有2個月的數字, 但此數字已遠高於"情況惡化"時之假設數字.
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週五公佈﹐5月份非農就業人數減少345,000人。5月份非農就業人數降幅創2008年9月以來的最小降幅。
美國就業人數已經連續17個月下降﹐與1981-1982年經濟衰退期間所創下的紀錄相同。
美國5月份失業率上升0.5個百分點﹐至9.4%﹐創1983年8月以來最高水平﹔經濟學家此前的預期為9.2%。很多經濟學家預期﹐失業率很快將超過10%。 (souce:wsj)
下圖(from calculated risk) , 將5月份的失業率與政府"stree test"所設定之情況比較, 可看出即使Q2只有2個月的數字, 但此數字已遠高於"情況惡化"時之假設數字.
5/30-Initial Claims
上週美國首次申請失業救濟人數如預期般小幅下降﹐而申請失業救濟總人數則出現今年以來的首次下滑﹐這再次暗示勞動力市場已經走出最低谷。不過﹐上述數據預示定於週五公佈的非農就業人數將再度大幅下降﹐降幅將超過500,000人。
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週四在每週報告中稱﹐5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數減少4,000人﹐至621,000人。之前一週的首次申請失業救濟人數被小幅向上修正。此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)的經濟學家們預計﹐5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數將減少3,000人。
截至5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數的四週平均值增加4,000人﹐至631,250人。與此同時﹐5月23日當週持續申請失業救濟的人數下降15,000﹐至6,735,000人﹐這是自1月3日當週以來持續申請失業救濟人數首次出現下降。(source:wsj)
上圖呈現自1971年起每週首次申領及持續申領人數變化. 持續申領人數在連續19週上升且達6,735,000人後首次出現下滑. 此人數約當於5%之失業率.
5/30當週首次申領四週平均值增加4,000人, 此人數較 7 週前減少27,500人. 因此雖還無法確定,但先前的數字可能已是本次循環之高點, 若此, 則持續申領將可能很快的亦出現高峰.
美國勞工部(Labor Department)週四在每週報告中稱﹐5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數減少4,000人﹐至621,000人。之前一週的首次申請失業救濟人數被小幅向上修正。此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)的經濟學家們預計﹐5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數將減少3,000人。
截至5月30日當週首次申請失業救濟人數的四週平均值增加4,000人﹐至631,250人。與此同時﹐5月23日當週持續申請失業救濟的人數下降15,000﹐至6,735,000人﹐這是自1月3日當週以來持續申請失業救濟人數首次出現下降。(source:wsj)
source:calculated risk
上圖呈現自1971年起每週首次申領及持續申領人數變化. 持續申領人數在連續19週上升且達6,735,000人後首次出現下滑. 此人數約當於5%之失業率.
5/30當週首次申領四週平均值增加4,000人, 此人數較 7 週前減少27,500人. 因此雖還無法確定,但先前的數字可能已是本次循環之高點, 若此, 則持續申領將可能很快的亦出現高峰.
2009年6月4日 星期四
美赤字飆高 葛羅斯建議及時分散美元資產
News from Chinatimes :
美國赤字節節攀升下，太平洋投資管理公司 (Pimco)創辦人葛羅斯 (BillGross) 建議持有美元的投資人，應趕在各國央行與主權財富基金採取類似行動前，分散美元資產。
葛羅斯接受彭博電台專訪時表示，美國財政部長蓋特納 (Timothy Geithner)打算讓預算重返平衡的計畫行不通，因為消費者削減支出且美國成長率減慢。
蓋特納日前表示，美國的預算赤字將由今年佔國內生產毛額 (GDP)的12.9%削減至「大約」3%。
葛羅斯自Pimco加州總部接受訪問時表示：「我認為他不能像變戲法似地就讓預算平衡。」「他們說─一旦美國經濟重返常軌─讓預算回返平衡或赤字大幅減少的讓步。我懷疑這很難辦到。」
葛羅斯在其公司網站的6月投資展望中寫道，較高的儲蓄率以及公債成本的升高將拖累美國經濟，這可能意味著「上兆美元赤字將徘徊不去」。(閱讀全文)
Ben Bernanke speaks-6/3
Testimony
Before the Committee on the Budget. June 3, 2009
Current economic and financial conditions and the federal budget
Economic Developments and Outlook
.....However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing. Notably, consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, has been roughly flat since the turn of the year, and consumer sentiment has improved. In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.
Activity in the housing market, after a long period of decline, has also shown some signs of bottoming. Sales of existing homes have been fairly stable since late last year, and sales of new homes seem to have flattened out in the past couple of monthly readings, though both remain at depressed levels. Meanwhile, construction of new homes has been sufficiently restrained to allow the backlog of unsold new homes to decline--a precondition for any recovery in homebuilding.
Businesses remain very cautious and continue to reduce their workforces and capital investments. On a more positive note, firms are making progress in shedding the unwanted inventories that they accumulated following last fall's sharp downturn in sales. The Commerce Department estimates that the pace of inventory liquidation quickened in the first quarter, accounting for a sizable portion of the reported decline in real GDP in that period. As inventory stocks move into better alignment with sales, firms should become more willing to increase production.
We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year. Our assessments that consumer spending and housing demand will stabilize and that the pace of inventory liquidation will slow are key building blocks of that forecast. .....
...Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further. We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes.
In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. The slack in resource utilization remains sizable, and, not withstanding recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities, cost pressures generally remain subdued. As a consequence, inflation is likely to move down some over the next year relative to its pace in 2008. That said, improving economic conditions and stable inflation expectations should limit further declines in inflation.
Conditions in Financial Markets
.....Mortgage rates and spreads have also been reduced by the Federal Reserve's program of purchasing agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. However, in recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen. These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.
Fiscal Policy in the Current Economic and Financial Environment
......The increases in spending and reductions in taxes associated with the fiscal package and the financial stabilization program, along with the losses in revenues and increases in income-support payments associated with the weak economy, will widen the federal budget deficit substantially this year. The Administration recently submitted a proposed budget that projects the federal deficit to reach about $1.8 trillion this fiscal year before declining to $1.3 trillion in 2010 and roughly $900 billion in 2011. As a consequence of this elevated level of borrowing, the ratio of federal debt held by the public to nominal GDP is likely to move up from about 40 percent before the onset of the financial crisis to about 70 percent in 2011. These developments would leave the debt-to-GDP ratio at its highest level since the early 1950s, the years following the massive debt buildup during World War II..
related news: 貝南克:經濟將在今年晚些時候恢復增長
Before the Committee on the Budget. June 3, 2009
Current economic and financial conditions and the federal budget
Economic Developments and Outlook
.....However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing. Notably, consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, has been roughly flat since the turn of the year, and consumer sentiment has improved. In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.
Activity in the housing market, after a long period of decline, has also shown some signs of bottoming. Sales of existing homes have been fairly stable since late last year, and sales of new homes seem to have flattened out in the past couple of monthly readings, though both remain at depressed levels. Meanwhile, construction of new homes has been sufficiently restrained to allow the backlog of unsold new homes to decline--a precondition for any recovery in homebuilding.
Businesses remain very cautious and continue to reduce their workforces and capital investments. On a more positive note, firms are making progress in shedding the unwanted inventories that they accumulated following last fall's sharp downturn in sales. The Commerce Department estimates that the pace of inventory liquidation quickened in the first quarter, accounting for a sizable portion of the reported decline in real GDP in that period. As inventory stocks move into better alignment with sales, firms should become more willing to increase production.
We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year. Our assessments that consumer spending and housing demand will stabilize and that the pace of inventory liquidation will slow are key building blocks of that forecast. .....
...Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further. We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes.
In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low. The slack in resource utilization remains sizable, and, not withstanding recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities, cost pressures generally remain subdued. As a consequence, inflation is likely to move down some over the next year relative to its pace in 2008. That said, improving economic conditions and stable inflation expectations should limit further declines in inflation.
Conditions in Financial Markets
.....Mortgage rates and spreads have also been reduced by the Federal Reserve's program of purchasing agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. However, in recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen. These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.
Fiscal Policy in the Current Economic and Financial Environment
......The increases in spending and reductions in taxes associated with the fiscal package and the financial stabilization program, along with the losses in revenues and increases in income-support payments associated with the weak economy, will widen the federal budget deficit substantially this year. The Administration recently submitted a proposed budget that projects the federal deficit to reach about $1.8 trillion this fiscal year before declining to $1.3 trillion in 2010 and roughly $900 billion in 2011. As a consequence of this elevated level of borrowing, the ratio of federal debt held by the public to nominal GDP is likely to move up from about 40 percent before the onset of the financial crisis to about 70 percent in 2011. These developments would leave the debt-to-GDP ratio at its highest level since the early 1950s, the years following the massive debt buildup during World War II..
related news: 貝南克:經濟將在今年晚些時候恢復增長
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