*經濟的成長大部份將由亞洲及其它新興國家所主導。
*亞洲市場持續提供優於大多已開發市場的盈餘成長。
*長期來看，亞洲國家無論於公司、家計單位及國家都存在較堅實的資產負債表。
*具成長力優質股票及強大的內需將是2010年投資亞洲市場的主要題材。
*在去槓桿及再次衰退的風險下，新興市場的資產等級相對較已開發國家安全許多。且新興國家有更廣泛的工具以因應未來一旦的衝擊或其它經濟問題。而亞幣的升值將會來自於V形復甦下的通膨壓力。
*未來的投資可以歸納為二個字"emerging markets"。
From Opalesque: Global assets managers are confident emerging markets will continue to deliver into 2010
Three leading global asset managers expressed confidence that emerging markets will continue to deliver on the upside in 2010 and forecasted an encouraging future for emerging markets asset classes.
Batterymarch Financial Management, an affiliate of UK-based asset manager Legg Mason which manages $703bn, said they expect a large portion of global growth would be driven by Asia and other emerging markets. The firm added that the Chinese economic activity, supported by improvement in the US, would be key to the economic environment. Overall, Asian markets continue to offer better than expected earnings growth than most developed markets, as well as solid profitability. Furthermore, earnings estimate revisions are rising across Asia and are positive across the region as analysts look through to future recovery.
Ray Prasad, Batterymarch Financial Management, said on Asia-Pacific equities: "Over the shorter term, Asian markets appear to be entering an environment where outperformance may shift amongst sectors, sometimes sharply, with the potential for meaningful corrections within sectors from time to time, but with little damage to the asset class as a whole. In the long term, the combination of attractive valuations, superior growth prospects and solid balance sheets at the sovereign, corporate and household level, means we are confident in the capacity of Asian markets to perform well.'
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Another UK-based asset manager, Mirae Asset, which has $56bn in AuM, believes in emerging market growth. Regional chief investment officer for Asia Pacific Wilfred Sit said that high quality stocks showing sustainable growth, combined with a focus on Asia's huge domestic markets including those driven by consumer demand, would be the key Asian investment themes for 2010.
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He said that China, India and Indonesia would lead the pack due to their huge domestic markets and added that as central banks continue to diversify away from the weak US dollar, Asian equities have emerged as a key beneficiary together with property and gold.
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Booth said that given the risk of a double dip and further sharp deleveraging, emerging market asset classes are now safer than their equivalents in developed countries. Emerging countries have a wide range of policy tools to cope with further external shocks or other economic problems. He added that a number of East Asian economies in particular will have to move to a more domestic demand driven model of growth in future. The main prompt for Asian currency appreciation is likely to be inflationary pressure associated with their strong V-shaped recovery.
Booth made the same outlook for emerging markets in October when he advised investors to rethink their view of the world and their asset allocations and risk. Two months ago, he said the future of investing could be summed up in two words: emerging markets.
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