摘自鉅亨網12/3/08 原文
美國經濟研究局(NBER)終於確認了真實世界至少已知道了一年的大事：美國經濟已陷入戰後第十一次的衰退。
經濟研究局說，最近一次的商業週期高峰係於一年前達到，即2007年12月。相形之下，2001年3月高峰期係在八個月後公布，1990年7月高峰期則在九個月後決定。1981年7月高峰期是在六個月後確定，而1980年1月達到的高峰，僅花了五個月便告確認。
下一個問題是，誰在乎？答案是有興趣預測的人，即經濟學者，投資人，決策官員，及企業人士等。
在確定了經濟衰退的開始與終止時間後，投資人便可與前幾次的衰退做一比較，判斷經濟進一步下滑的機率。儘管不同的衰退期，有著不同的原因，但這類比較仍有其用處。
例如，戰後最短的衰退僅持續了六個月，而最長者則達16個月。平均而言，經濟衰退期為十個月。 在延續了十一個月後，目前的經濟衰退期已長過了平均期間，且快速接近二個最長的衰退期：1973至75年與1981至82年。
如果最近的衰退期間不長過這二次，那麼在4月底之前，便可能結束。然而，根據陸續公布的數據，及這次經濟下滑的原因，這似乎有點太過樂觀。 大多分析師預期，美國經濟仍將下滑，至少到2009年中。若如此，則這波經濟衰退將達18個月，創下戰後以來最長期間。
雖然目前這波衰退似乎與眾不同，但政府迅速推出的貨幣與財政政策，則更是特殊。
回想過去，聯邦準備理事會(Fed)係於2007年9月開始降息，亦即經濟衰退正式宣布之前三個月。隨後，無視預算赤字，華盛頓今年夏季進行了逾1500億美元的退稅。
這貨幣與財政兩種政策顯示，仍有進一步的振興經濟方案將會出爐，一如柏南克與鮑爾森的演說所稱。如果政府能讓房價止跌，則效率將會更佳。
分析師認為，這波經濟衰退最有可能的結果是，期間長度超過戰後記錄，但嚴重程度則甚至可能不及1981至82年的經濟衰退期。 那次的衰退中，美國失業率上升到了10.8%，創下自1940年以來最高水準。但這一次，沒有人預期會見到如此高的失業率，至少目前沒有。
2008年12月3日 星期三
Institutional Investors Still Interested In Hedge Funds
Turbulent market conditions have taken a heavy toll on the hedge fund industry, but a select group of investors is still optimistic about the long-term success of the industry.
According to a new Prequin survey, 46.6% of institutional investors said that their long-term outlook on the hedge fund industry was positive and 67.8% of investors have an unfilled long-term target allocation to the asset class. Just 5% of institutional investors described their activity as “mainly redeeming investments.”
And while the majority of institutional investors (75%) surveyed reported that their hedge fund investment returns had fallen short of original expectations, more than half (53%) are satisfied with their hedge fund returns.
“Through our research and analysis it is clear that a number of institutional investors are delaying making new investments with hedge fund managers, however, few are redeeming their investments,” said Amy Bensted, a Prequin spokesman. “As institutional investors have a longer term investment horizon, many still believe in the ability of hedge funds to provide returns and a significant number have seen hedge funds as some of the better performing aspects of their portfolio.”
source: 12/1/08 FIN alternatives
According to a new Prequin survey, 46.6% of institutional investors said that their long-term outlook on the hedge fund industry was positive and 67.8% of investors have an unfilled long-term target allocation to the asset class. Just 5% of institutional investors described their activity as “mainly redeeming investments.”
And while the majority of institutional investors (75%) surveyed reported that their hedge fund investment returns had fallen short of original expectations, more than half (53%) are satisfied with their hedge fund returns.
“Through our research and analysis it is clear that a number of institutional investors are delaying making new investments with hedge fund managers, however, few are redeeming their investments,” said Amy Bensted, a Prequin spokesman. “As institutional investors have a longer term investment horizon, many still believe in the ability of hedge funds to provide returns and a significant number have seen hedge funds as some of the better performing aspects of their portfolio.”
source: 12/1/08 FIN alternatives
How to avoid the horrors of ‘stag-deflation’
各國的央行在處理通膨上, 很容易可以藉由升息來控制 . 然而在對付通縮時, 因為利率無法降到零以下,故將導致貨幣政策失效, 無法藉此控制. 先前對於通膨的煩腦, 現在大概都已被通縮取代了.
而Roubin先前曾提及, 不用再去管這些的Bail out有沒有用, 做總比不做好的多. 寬鬆的貨幣政策,即使將導致通膨的產生, 相信各央行都有很好的經驗可應付. 但若stag-deflation(停滯性通縮)到來, 那才將是個horrors.
以下取自12/2/08Financial Times by Nouriel Roubini
The US and the global economy are at risk of a severe stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation.
A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labour costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices fall will lead to sharply lower inflation. Thus inflation in advanced economies will fall towards the 1 per cent level that leads to concerns about deflation.
Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap, a deflation trap and a debt deflation trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero and thus monetary policy becomes ineffective. We are already in this liquidity trap since the Fed funds target rate is still 1 per cent but the effective one is close to zero as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with liquidity…
As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies have be used: massive provision of liquidity to financial institutions to unclog the liquidity crunch and reduce the spread between short-term market rates and policy rates; quasi-fiscal policies to bail out investors, lenders and borrowers…
In the next few months, the flow of macroeconomic and earnings news will be much worse than expected. The credit crunch will get worse, with deleveraging continuing as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, leading to further cascading falls in prices, other insolvent financial institutions going bust and a few emerging market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis.
The worst is not behind us: 2009 will be a painful year of a global recession, deflation and bankruptcies. Only very aggressive and co-ordinated policy actions will ensure the global economy recovers in 2010 rather than facing protracted stagnation and deflation.
Read full article
而Roubin先前曾提及, 不用再去管這些的Bail out有沒有用, 做總比不做好的多. 寬鬆的貨幣政策,即使將導致通膨的產生, 相信各央行都有很好的經驗可應付. 但若stag-deflation(停滯性通縮)到來, 那才將是個horrors.
以下取自12/2/08Financial Times by Nouriel Roubini
The US and the global economy are at risk of a severe stag-deflation, a deadly combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation.
A severe global recession will lead to deflationary pressures. Falling demand will lead to lower inflation as companies cut prices to reduce excess inventory. Slack in labour markets from rising unemployment will control labour costs and wage growth. Further slack in commodity markets as prices fall will lead to sharply lower inflation. Thus inflation in advanced economies will fall towards the 1 per cent level that leads to concerns about deflation.
Deflation is dangerous as it leads to a liquidity trap, a deflation trap and a debt deflation trap: nominal policy rates cannot fall below zero and thus monetary policy becomes ineffective. We are already in this liquidity trap since the Fed funds target rate is still 1 per cent but the effective one is close to zero as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with liquidity…
As traditional monetary policy becomes ineffective, other unorthodox policies have be used: massive provision of liquidity to financial institutions to unclog the liquidity crunch and reduce the spread between short-term market rates and policy rates; quasi-fiscal policies to bail out investors, lenders and borrowers…
In the next few months, the flow of macroeconomic and earnings news will be much worse than expected. The credit crunch will get worse, with deleveraging continuing as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, leading to further cascading falls in prices, other insolvent financial institutions going bust and a few emerging market economies entering a full-blown financial crisis.
The worst is not behind us: 2009 will be a painful year of a global recession, deflation and bankruptcies. Only very aggressive and co-ordinated policy actions will ensure the global economy recovers in 2010 rather than facing protracted stagnation and deflation.
Read full article
2008年12月2日 星期二
美國11月份製造業指數全線下滑
美國製造業在11月份遭受重創﹐當月製造業活動下滑﹐而且價格水平創下戰後以來的最大降幅之一。美國供應管理學會(Institute for Supply Management)週一公佈的報告顯示﹐11月份製造業活動指數為36.2﹐低於10月的38.9和9月的43.5﹐而且創下1982年5月以來的最低水平。該指數低於50﹐表明製造業活動出現萎縮。
ISM報告的表現受到經濟疲弱的困擾。
11月份就業指數為34.2﹐低於10月份的34.6。
11月份新訂單指數從10月份的32.2降至27.9﹐為1980年6月以來的最低水平。
通貨膨脹率持續回落是11月份製造業報告中唯一的好消息。
當月價格指數從10月份的37.0降至25.5﹐為1949年5月以來的最低水平。
ISM報告再度顯示美國經濟在第四季度陷入困境﹐金融市場當前的種種問題正在拖纍經濟增長與就業表現。
source:wsj
ISM報告的表現受到經濟疲弱的困擾。
11月份就業指數為34.2﹐低於10月份的34.6。
11月份新訂單指數從10月份的32.2降至27.9﹐為1980年6月以來的最低水平。
通貨膨脹率持續回落是11月份製造業報告中唯一的好消息。
當月價格指數從10月份的37.0降至25.5﹐為1949年5月以來的最低水平。
ISM報告再度顯示美國經濟在第四季度陷入困境﹐金融市場當前的種種問題正在拖纍經濟增長與就業表現。
source:wsj
NBER確認美國經濟從2007年12月起已陷入衰退
美國國家經濟研究局(NBER)11/28的會議, 確認此次的經濟衰退的起始點起自2007年12月. 亦是此次衰退前的經濟活動高峰, 此先前的經濟擴張起自2001年11月, 至2007年12月結束, 共歷時73個月, 相較先前1990s的擴張期為120個月. 經濟衰退的期間是指此波經濟活動的高峰為起點至谷底為其終點.
經濟衰退是指經濟活動的下滑, 並擴散至各整體, 且通常持續數月, 一般會透過生產、就業、實質所得及其它的指標呈現. 也因為經濟衰退對經濟的影響是全面性的, 故委員會在決定經濟衰退並非由任何單一數據而決定, 而是強調全面性的考量. 但主要仍以國內生產及就業情況為經濟活動的主要衡量.
source:NBER
related news : wsj.
經濟衰退是指經濟活動的下滑, 並擴散至各整體, 且通常持續數月, 一般會透過生產、就業、實質所得及其它的指標呈現. 也因為經濟衰退對經濟的影響是全面性的, 故委員會在決定經濟衰退並非由任何單一數據而決定, 而是強調全面性的考量. 但主要仍以國內生產及就業情況為經濟活動的主要衡量.
source:NBER
related news : wsj.
2008年12月1日 星期一
Heh heh...What?
~~Just relax~~
An investor hands a hedge fund manager a £10 note.
"Get me a drink. If I like your choice, I'll buy the drinks all night" says the investor.
The hedge fund manager shrugs and orders them a pint of Guinness each.
The barman pours the drinks, takes the cash, and then tells the hedge fund manager
"You should have bought vodka instead."
"Really? Why vodka instead of Guinness?" asks the manager.
"More transparency, greater liquidity," replies the barman.
Too late! The investor had already exited....
source:hedgefunds webblog
An investor hands a hedge fund manager a £10 note.
"Get me a drink. If I like your choice, I'll buy the drinks all night" says the investor.
The hedge fund manager shrugs and orders them a pint of Guinness each.
The barman pours the drinks, takes the cash, and then tells the hedge fund manager
"You should have bought vodka instead."
"Really? Why vodka instead of Guinness?" asks the manager.
"More transparency, greater liquidity," replies the barman.
Too late! The investor had already exited....
source:hedgefunds webblog
What Would Keynes Have Done?
凱恩斯主義經濟學或凱恩斯主義是根據凱恩斯的著作《貨幣、利息與就業通論》的思想基礎上的經濟理論，主張國家採用擴張性的經濟政策，通過增加需求促進經濟增長。
摘自The New York Times 11/30/08 What would Kenyes Have Done? by N.Gregory Mankiw
根據凱恩斯主義, 經濟下滑的根源是來自於需求不足. 商品或服務的需求下滑--> 銷售下跌--> 生產削減及裁員...增高的失業率及獲利的下跌, 進一步的壓抑需求..如此將造成惡性循環.
原文部份內容:
IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes. Although Keynes died more than a half-century ago, his diagnosis of recessions and depressions remains the foundation of modern macroeconomics. His insights go a long way toward explaining the challenges we now confront.
According to Keynes, the root cause of economic downturns is insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.
The situation reverses, Keynesian theory says, only when some event or policy increases aggregate demand. The problem right now is that it is hard to see where that demand might come from.
The economy’s output of goods and services is traditionally divided into four components: consumption, investment, net exports and government purchases. Any expansion in demand has to come from one of these four. But in each case, strong forces are working to keep spending down.
The fly in the ointment — or perhaps it is more an elephant — is the long-term fiscal picture. Increased government spending may be a good short-run fix, but it would add to the budget deficit.
Keynesian economists often dismiss these long-run concerns when the economy has short-run problems. “In the long run we are all dead,” Keynes famously quipped.
It is hard to say how successful monetary and fiscal policy will be in avoiding a deep downturn. But as events unfold, you can be sure that policymakers in the Fed and Treasury will be looking at them through a Keynesian lens.
In 1936, Keynes wrote, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slave of some defunct economist.” In 2008, no defunct economist is more prominent than Keynes himself.
摘自The New York Times 11/30/08 What would Kenyes Have Done? by N.Gregory Mankiw
根據凱恩斯主義, 經濟下滑的根源是來自於需求不足. 商品或服務的需求下滑--> 銷售下跌--> 生產削減及裁員...增高的失業率及獲利的下跌, 進一步的壓抑需求..如此將造成惡性循環.
原文部份內容:
IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes. Although Keynes died more than a half-century ago, his diagnosis of recessions and depressions remains the foundation of modern macroeconomics. His insights go a long way toward explaining the challenges we now confront.
According to Keynes, the root cause of economic downturns is insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.
The situation reverses, Keynesian theory says, only when some event or policy increases aggregate demand. The problem right now is that it is hard to see where that demand might come from.
The economy’s output of goods and services is traditionally divided into four components: consumption, investment, net exports and government purchases. Any expansion in demand has to come from one of these four. But in each case, strong forces are working to keep spending down.
The fly in the ointment — or perhaps it is more an elephant — is the long-term fiscal picture. Increased government spending may be a good short-run fix, but it would add to the budget deficit.
Keynesian economists often dismiss these long-run concerns when the economy has short-run problems. “In the long run we are all dead,” Keynes famously quipped.
It is hard to say how successful monetary and fiscal policy will be in avoiding a deep downturn. But as events unfold, you can be sure that policymakers in the Fed and Treasury will be looking at them through a Keynesian lens.
In 1936, Keynes wrote, “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slave of some defunct economist.” In 2008, no defunct economist is more prominent than Keynes himself.
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)