Hedge Fund News

From Asia Investor: How hedge funds can get on Goldman Sachs' approved list (source)

Hong Kong-based Tuan Lam has managerial oversight in the alternative investments and manager selection group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management in Asia. Goldman Sachs' global platform consists of three integrated businesses: funds of private equity funds, funds of hedge funds and funds of long-only funds.

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What type of hedge fund managers, strategies and locations, interest you for 2010?
In alternatives, investors are migrating back into hedge funds but have not yet jumped in a big way back into the more illiquid strategies, such as private equity. The strategies that are attracting the most interest in Asia are the long-biased ones, not just equity long/short but also event-driven long-biased strategies.

Beyond that, we are also seeing some credit strategy funds getting launched.

Having said that, investors are still cautious about strategies that require high levels of leverage; managers are also generally focused on strategies that can create returns without lots of leverage. Managers are likely to focus on fundamental analysis to identify company-specific, as opposed to deal structure-specific, drivers of returns.

Is the story in Asia the same as globally?
This year in Asia, similar to what we see globally, there will likely be less of a "crowding effect" around some of the strategies, thereby creating more room to drive returns. We also believe managers will be more focused on risk management, downside protection and transparency.

Another important thing to note is that many of the newer funds currently in the market to raise capital are run by experienced investors, who may have been with larger franchises and saw the lessons of 2008.

What important things can a fund do to get on your approved list?
In talking to managers, we spend a lot of time on the basic elements: the team's capabilities, investment strategy, reputation, track record, etc. We also are very focused on another very important aspect, operational due diligence.

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In performing operational due diligence, they focus on making sure the fund managers have put in place a list of core, basic operational elements; they also focus on a wide range of qualitative issues. This capability has helped us avoid some of the well known fraud issues in the US. It's going to continue to be an area of focus for us.

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Currently many investors are looking for managers who didn't get crushed in 2008 and have been able to participate in the 2009 upturn. If they maintained low net exposure and missed the upturn in 2009, then we focus on understanding their rationale for the strategy and the positions.

If these are well-thought out and are based on sound analysis, our guess is that investors don't necessarily rule the managers out only because of 2009 relative performance.

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What is your outlook for 2010?
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In hedge funds, we are seeing interest in various long-biased strategies to address the growth themes. Clients are also focused on newer funds which are run by experienced managers who did relatively well in 2008 and 2009, who are focused on risk management and providing higher levels of transparency.

12/5- 當週經濟數據彙整

UNITED STATES
*Wide swath of positives in November jobs report
*Beige Book more upbeat

EUROPE
*ECB on hold, slowly exiting its emergency liquidity provisions (no final exit strategy announced yet)

AUSTRALIA
*RBA hikes rates for the 3rd straight month (+25 bps to 3.75%)

source:BMO

11月失業率降至10%

• 11月份美國非農就業人數僅下降11,000人﹐大幅低於10月份經向下修正後的降幅111,000人，失業率自10月的10.2%降至10%，表明隨著經濟的復甦，使得企業裁員人數大幅下降。
  
  
• 11月份是就業數據自2007年12月份以來最好的一次，當時就業人數增加了120,000人。
  
  
• 此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的經濟學家預計11月份非農就業人數下降125,000人。
  
  
• 11月份服務業就業人數增加58,000人。但製造業及建築業就業人數分別減少41,000人和27,000人。
  
  
• 在過去一年來，整個經濟體共減少了480萬個工作，而自過去23個月以來，失業人數已增加了720萬人。
  
  

• 下圖:自就業衰退起之工作減損情況。
  
  
• 本輪衰退就業市場的巔峰在2007/12，而就業衰退速度在開始時速度較為緩慢。
  
  
• 然而於今年年初工作喪失情況開始遽升，就工作喪失的百分比看，本次衰退是WWII後最糟的情況。
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

11/28 - Initial Claims

• 美國勞工部(Labor Department)週四公佈的報告顯示，截至11/28美國首次申請失業給付人數減少5,000 人，至457,000人。 為2008/9/6以來最低水平，也是11月以來首次申請失業救濟人數連續第二週處於500,000人以下水平。此外，首次申請失業救濟人數並為連續第五週下降。
  
  
• 截至11/28當週首次申請失業給付人數的四週平均值減少14,250人，至 481,250人。該數字是自2008/11以來最低水平。
  
  
• 截至11/21當週持續申請失業給付人數增加28,000人，至5,465,000人。
  
  
  

From dshoart: Four Bad Bear Market update(12/3/2009)

• The S&P 500 closed the day down 0.84%. The index is 62.6% above the March 9th close, which is 29.7% below the peak in October 2007.

11月份ISM服務業指數

From sina:

美國供應管理協會(Institute for Supply Management)週四報告稱，今年11月份美國非製造業活動指數在連續兩個月攀升之後再度萎縮。

報告表明，美國11月ISM非製造業活動指數從10月份的50.6%下降至48.7%。該指標低於50%表明服務業仍處於萎縮狀態，即報告稱經濟活動萎縮的受訪企業多於經濟活動擴張的企業。

ISM機構非製造業調查報告委員會主席安東尼-尼夫斯(Anthony Nieves)表示，“受訪者對商業狀況的評估仍然非常謹慎，他們普遍對經濟復甦能否持續較長時間感到擔心。”

甚至有受訪者對ISM表示，“沒有人真正相信經濟復甦是真實的。看起來所有的事情都不過是維持現狀，所有人都對經濟復甦持保留態度。”

此前接受MarketWatch調查的經濟學家平均預期美國11月非製造業活動指數將攀升至51.5%。

非製造業指的就是服務業，主要包括銀行、航空、旅店、餐館等行業。服務業在美國經濟中的比重高達80%。

ISM今天的報告表明，在非製造業的18個行業中，有6個行業報告稱商業活動狀況出現擴張，依次為醫療保健、建築、金融以及零售業等等。

各分項指數當中，11月份的就業指數從10月份的41.1%攀升至41.6%。新訂單指數從55.6%下降至55.1%。生產指數從55.2%下降至49.6%。

More on PMI

11月份的製造業指數中，美、英二國同時出現下滑；而中國和歐元區的製造業景氣則呈現加速擴張。

中國：11月份製造業PMI為55.2%，連9個月高於50

• ..2009年11月， 中国物流与采购联合会（CFLP）中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为55.2%，同上月持平。
  
  
• ..本月20个行业中，只有造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业、石油加工及炼焦业、饮料制造业3个行业低于50%，其余17个行业均高于50%，尤其以烟草制品业、服装鞋帽制造及皮毛羽绒制品业为最高，达到60%以上。
  
  
• 从产品类型看，原材料与能源、中间品、生活消费品和生产用制成品类企业均高于50%，其中生产用制成品类企业最高，达到55%以上。( source:CFLP)
  

歐元區：製造業持續復甦

• 由Markit集團公佈的11月製造業PMI指數，從10月的50.7上升至51.2，達20個月的新高，顯示歐元區經濟可望在第3、4季都能連續維持增長。
  
  
• 子項目中新訂單及產出都呈現過去2年來最快的升速，但就業指數仍相當疲弱。
  
  
• 歐元區的成長主要由德國、法國所帶動；西班牙與希臘則持續處於衰退狀態。(source:Markit Economics)

英國：製造業復甦持續，但步伐減緩

• 由Markit集團公佈的英國11月製造業PMI指數，從10月的53.4下滑至51.8，雖仍位於顯示擴張的50以上，但資料顯示製造業仍有可能因為庫存回補結束，而再次下挫。
  
  
• 在子項目中，生產及新訂單持續增長，但速度減緩；就業仍處於一年半來的最低水平；產年價格則是10個月來首次的上升。(source:Markit Economics)

11月份PMI at 53.6%

From sina:

美國供應管理協會(ISM)宣佈，11月美國製造業的狀況連續第四個月改善，但改善的速度低於10月。

11月的ISM製造業指數跌至53.6%，低於10月的55.7%。ISM指數高於50%意味著更多的受調查企業宣稱業務有所增長而不是萎縮。今年11月製造業18個子行業中有12個實現了環比增長。接受湯森路透集團調查的經濟學家平均預期：11月的ISM製造業指數將小幅回調至55%。

ISM調查委員會的負責人諾伯特-沃爾(Norbert Ore)表示：“雖然增長速度低於10月的水平，但製造業保持增長令人鼓舞，新訂單和產出數字都處於很有利的位置，與此同時價格指數下跌了10個百分點，這意味著製造商成本的通脹壓力更低了。整體而言，製造業的復甦仍在持續，但依據製造企業的評論來看，許多企業仍在艱難前行。”

ISM製造業指數的子指數中，新訂單指數增至60.3%，超過10月的58.5%；產出指數由10月的63.3%降至59.9%；僱傭指數由53.1%降至50.8%；庫存指數由46.9%降至41.3%；支付價格指數由65%大幅降至55%。