11月份零售銷售增長1.3%

• 由美國商務部公佈之11月的零售銷售額超預期增長1.3%，這是過去四個月中該數字第三次環比上漲。11月零售銷售的增幅創下今年8月以來新高，8月的環比增幅為2.4%。
  
  
• 若不計增長1.6%的汽車銷售，11月的零售銷售環比上漲1.2%，漲幅創今年1月以來新高。
  
  
• 過去一年中零售銷售增長1.9%，這是2008年8月以來的首次同比增長。出色的零售銷售報告增強了市場對美國經濟正以良好狀態擺脫衰退的判斷。但是，一些經濟學家指出，經濟仍面臨源自信貸緊縮和高失業率的重大阻力。
  
  

• 11月各類零售機構的銷售額普遍上漲，其中包括汽車店、加油站、百貨店和五金店等，僅有服裝和傢具店的銷售額環比下滑。
  
  
• 汽油零售額環比增6%，為整體數據的攀升做出了重要貢獻，6%的增幅創下今年6月以來新高。
  
  
• 若不計加油站的銷售，11月的零售銷售將增長0.8%。不計汽油和汽車的零售銷售環比增0.6%。
  

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美12月初消費者信心指數創9月以來新高

密歇根大學消費者研究中心和路透社聯合發佈的一份調查報告顯示，12月初美國消費者的信心明顯改善，12月初的消費者信心指數增至73.4點，超過11月的67.4點，創下今年9月以來的新高。

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消費者對當前經濟狀況的信心指數由11月的68.8點增至79.1點，後者創下2008年4月以來新高。消費者對近期內經濟前景的預期指數由66.5點增至69.7點。

整體而言，最新的信心指數表明消費者領域正在恢復正常。消費者經濟在美國經濟總量中佔有75%的比重。

Naroff經濟咨詢公司的總裁喬伊-納諾夫(Joel Naroff)表示：“看來美國家庭花錢並沒有我們想像的那樣吝嗇。”根據近來發佈的多個經濟數據判斷，經濟學家很可能調升對第四季度GDP增長率的預期。

10月貿易赤字收窄

• 10月的貿易赤字縮減7.6%至329億美元，主要來自出口額的增速超過進口額的增速。
  
  
• 10月份出口在美元疲弱的影響下，上升至1,368億美元，同期進口額為1,698億美元。10月份進、出口分別較9月份增加35億和7億美元。
  
  
• 10月美國出口增長2.5%，已連續6個月增長，主要原因來自美元的疲軟。
  
  
• 截至10月底，美國今年的貿易赤字總計3,040億美元，明顯低於去年同期的6,108億美元。巴黎銀行的經濟學家認為，隨著美國工業產出和貿易活動逐步恢復正常，貿易赤字的改善勢頭可能會逆轉。
  
  
• 下圖:至2009年10月美國進出口月資料。
  
  
• 進、出口在10月份都呈現增長；相較去年同期進、出口則分別下滑19%、9%。
  
  
  
  
  
  
• 下圖:分別呈現美國貿易赤字(blue line) 、原油赤字(black line) 及不含原油之赤字(red line)
  
  
• 10月份的進口油價些微下滑至$67.39，只是仍較2月份的$39.22增加了50%。油價在連續7個月上升後，10月份呈現下滑。
  
  
  
  
  
  

12/5- Initial Claims

• 美國勞工部(Labor Department)週四公佈的報告顯示，截至12/8美國首次申請失業給付人數增加17,000 人，至474,000人。
  
  
• 而較為平滑的首次申請失業給付人數四週平均值則從481,500人減少至473,750萬人，創下自截至2008年9月27日當周以來的最低水平。表明在經濟復甦的形勢下，就業市場的情況持續改善中。。
  
  
• 截至11/28當週持續申請失業給付人數減少303,000人，至5,160,000人。
  
  
• 勞工部一名經濟學家說，每年此時，首次請領失業給付人數多見上揚，因為感恩節後一周的人數通常會增加，而且建築業通常在此時裁員，"這通常是一年中增幅最高的時候，今年也不例外"。
  
  
  
  
  
  

Hedge fund titan Paulson bullish on bonds

From Reuters: Hedge fund titan Paulson bullish on bonds

....
Paulson revealed about his investments: BULLISH ON CREDIT With $19 billion of cash on hand at the end of 2008,Paulson said he poured money into a wide range of fixed-income securities, convinced collapsing mortgage and credit markets had reached their nadir at the end of 2008. As of Nov. 30 this year, Paulson's Advantage Fund spread its bets in the following credit markets:

Leveraged corporate loans - 19 percent
Mortgage-backed securities - 28 percent
Defaulted bonds - 21 percent
Current-pay bonds - 30 percent
Debtor-in-Possession credit - 2 percent STOCKS

* Net long exposure to equities is "as high as at its ever been"
* Calls Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), HeidelbergCement AG (HEIG.DE) and Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O) "great buys"
* Bullish on gold bullion ETFs as a hedge against inflation and remains worried about U.S. stimulus spending fueling weakened dollar and price inflation

RESTRUCTURING PLAYS
Paulson said buying significant positions in the debt of distressed and bankrupt companies, with the goal of receiving equity through the process of financial restructuring, is a top focus these days for his funds. In his speech, he said he has positions in the following companies:
Washington Mutual. General .Growth Properties Idearc . DexMed CIT Group.Visteon Lehman Brothers .Lear Nortel. Babcock & Brown Delphi . Lyondell FairPoint Communications . AbitibiBowater R.H. Donnelly Corp . Capmark Financial Group

ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
At the end of November Paulson & Co managed:
* $4.3 billion in merger-arbitrage strategies
* $18.8 billion in event-arbitrage strategies
* $8.2 billion in credit strategies * $1.7 billion in its Recovery Fund

PERFORMANCE
* Since 1994 inception, Paulson has generated a net compound annual growth rate of 16.4 percent
* Only one losing year in that 15-year span - 1998 (Reporting by Joseph A. Giannone; editing by Andre Grenon)

Related news : Hedge fund manager Paulson buying stocks

HF Assets increased to $2.037tln

• 根據HFN所公佈之11月HF績效，在新資金流入及績效成長下，HF的資產重新站回2兆美元。而上次達2兆美元的資產總額是在2008/11月。只是目前相較於2008年Q2的高峰仍少了9000億美元。
  
  
• 11月份來自投資者之新資金流入為263億美元，由績效增加而增長的資產有405億美元。這也是連續第7個月投資者資金呈現淨流入。
  
  
• 11月份HFN Hedge Fund Aggregate指數上升2.03%(+18.66% YTD).
  

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From Opalesque: HFN released early estimates for November performance and asset flows.

Highlights:

• Hedge fund assets passed the $2 trillion mark in November driven both by performance and new allocations.
• Total assets increased 3.39% to $2.037 trillion. Assets were last above $2 trillion in November 2008.
• Investors allocated $26.3 billion to hedge funds in November, performance increased assets an additional $40.5 billion
• Investor flows were positive in November for the 7th consecutive month.
  
• During the 7 months of consecutive investor inflows, $119.91 billion has been allocated to hedge funds.
• The Core Growth Rate (% increase in assets due solely to investor flows) increased to 1.33% November. The rate of growth has risen two consecutive months.
• Hedge fund assets are still $900 billion below the peak set in Q2 2008.

Hedge fund performance was positive in November, driven by commodity focused strategies and emerging markets. Equity long/short strategies appeared conservatively positioned, underperforming the S&P by more than 450 basis points.

• The HFN Hedge Fund Aggregate Index was +2.03% in November and +18.66% YTD.
  

Details from November:

Assets:

• Fixed income investments outpaced equities in November, after lagging the two prior months.
• Investments in commodity strategies were in line with overall industry growth.
• Flows to corporate bond related strategies turned slightly negative in November.
• Fixed income arbitrage strategies had the fastest rate of inflow in November.
• Allocations into emerging markets slowed for the second straight month, but were in line with overall industry growth. (cont'd on performance)

Investing summed up in two words: emerging markets.

整理了Opalesque中三位在2010持續看多新興市場的基金經理人之觀點：

*經濟的成長大部份將由亞洲及其它新興國家所主導。

*亞洲市場持續提供優於大多已開發市場的盈餘成長。

*長期來看，亞洲國家無論於公司、家計單位及國家都存在較堅實的資產負債表。

*具成長力優質股票及強大的內需將是2010年投資亞洲市場的主要題材。

*在去槓桿及再次衰退的風險下，新興市場的資產等級相對較已開發國家安全許多。且新興國家有更廣泛的工具以因應未來一旦的衝擊或其它經濟問題。而亞幣的升值將會來自於V形復甦下的通膨壓力。

*未來的投資可以歸納為二個字"emerging markets"。

From Opalesque: Global assets managers are confident emerging markets will continue to deliver into 2010

Three leading global asset managers expressed confidence that emerging markets will continue to deliver on the upside in 2010 and forecasted an encouraging future for emerging markets asset classes.

Batterymarch Financial Management, an affiliate of UK-based asset manager Legg Mason which manages $703bn, said they expect a large portion of global growth would be driven by Asia and other emerging markets. The firm added that the Chinese economic activity, supported by improvement in the US, would be key to the economic environment. Overall, Asian markets continue to offer better than expected earnings growth than most developed markets, as well as solid profitability. Furthermore, earnings estimate revisions are rising across Asia and are positive across the region as analysts look through to future recovery.

Ray Prasad, Batterymarch Financial Management, said on Asia-Pacific equities: "Over the shorter term, Asian markets appear to be entering an environment where outperformance may shift amongst sectors, sometimes sharply, with the potential for meaningful corrections within sectors from time to time, but with little damage to the asset class as a whole. In the long term, the combination of attractive valuations, superior growth prospects and solid balance sheets at the sovereign, corporate and household level, means we are confident in the capacity of Asian markets to perform well.'

.......
Another UK-based asset manager, Mirae Asset, which has $56bn in AuM, believes in emerging market growth. Regional chief investment officer for Asia Pacific Wilfred Sit said that high quality stocks showing sustainable growth, combined with a focus on Asia's huge domestic markets including those driven by consumer demand, would be the key Asian investment themes for 2010.

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He said that China, India and Indonesia would lead the pack due to their huge domestic markets and added that as central banks continue to diversify away from the weak US dollar, Asian equities have emerged as a key beneficiary together with property and gold.

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Booth said that given the risk of a double dip and further sharp deleveraging, emerging market asset classes are now safer than their equivalents in developed countries. Emerging countries have a wide range of policy tools to cope with further external shocks or other economic problems. He added that a number of East Asian economies in particular will have to move to a more domestic demand driven model of growth in future. The main prompt for Asian currency appreciation is likely to be inflationary pressure associated with their strong V-shaped recovery.

Booth made the same outlook for emerging markets in October when he advised investors to rethink their view of the world and their asset allocations and risk. Two months ago, he said the future of investing could be summed up in two words: emerging markets.

Credit Suisse/Tremont HF Index Posts +2.29% in November

Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index 11月份初估上漲2.27%。其中Global Macro上漲3.93%，展現了今年來最佳的一個月；Managed Futures中的趨勢追隨策略在做多股市、商品市場及做空債券下，有4.59%的獲利。

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Early estimates indicate the Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index (“Broad Index”) will finish up +2.29% in November (based on 71%of assets reporting).

Hedge funds regained momentum in November following October’s muted returns. A number of Global Macro quant funds had their best month of the year which helped make up some of their losses in the second and third quarters. Gains came mainly from long positions in equities and gold as well as from bullish views on US and UK bonds. The USD carry trade remained popular among Global Macro managers as the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rates for the second month by 25 bps to 3.75%, while the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates near zero for some time. Trend followers in the Managed Futures sector were able to regain traction in November after a difficult October, while high frequency traders had mixed results, particularly in FX where volatility in a number of currencies created some sharp reversals. The trend followers generally profited from being long equities, commodities and short term bonds.

Event Driven was among the best performing strategies for the month, with performance contributors coming from profits being taken on distressed structured credit bonds that were bought on valuation plus cash flow bases earlier in the year, and long corporate exposures with a focus on idiosyncratic events. Many managers have been seeking to reduce risk by putting on more hedges, particularly on credit positions that have shown high correlations to equities.

Fixed Income Arbitrage funds had a fairly neutral month as many managers also continued reducing risk, and there were no major performance outliers on the positive or negative side.
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Strategy Estimates

(Click on graph for larger image in new window.)