Roubini interviews on his 2009 outlook

Roubini在Financial Time 專訪中談其2009年經濟的看法. 他被稱為末日經濟學家, 故應可歸屬於較悲觀派的經濟學家. 內容重點如下

Nouriel Roubini on His Outlook for 2009

Part 1, December 17 2008: Nouriel Roubini, expects 2009 to be a year of stagflation and recession for most of the global economic stagflation and recession for most of the global economy. He expects a severe, global recession. Whether or not it persists in 2010 will depend on how aggressive and effective policy actions are: monetary policy and fiscal policy and efforts to recapitalize financial institutions in the US and elsewhere. He believes there could be a return to positive economic growth by 2010. The European Central Bank should follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates further. The US needs a plan to reduce the debt burden to US households. The remedies will cost tax payers a lot of money.

Nouriel Roubini on The Culprits of the Crisis

Part 2, December 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini blames the Federal Reserve, regulators, the greed and arrogance of Wall Street and credit rating agencies for fueling a global asset bubble. The financial system has already changed radically. The times of self-regulation - which means no regulation - are gone. There is always a question of who regulates the regulators. A significant amount of fiscal resources should be devoted to appropriate regulation, the system needs more regulators and more auditors. This is not the end of capitalism or the end of market economies, but there has to be an appropriate role for governments to make sure the financial system and the real economy are working the way they should.

Nouriel Roubini on the next "shoe to drop"

Part 3, December 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini expects further financial stress. "A thousand if not more" hedge funds could go bust all at the same time. This means the selling of distress assets could continue. Another source of stress is emerging markets economies; there are about a dozen on the verge of a potential financial crisis, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela. Other skeletons could come out of the opaque financial system, similar to the Bernard Madoff scandal. The dollar is likely to weaken over the medium term. US and global equities could see declines of another 15 to 20 per cent in the next few months and a bear market rally will fizzle out. Commodity prices could fall another 15 to 20 percent. Cash and cash like instruments like safe government bonds are still the safest bet for the next few months. (video)

resource: RGE Monitor
related news: 2009將是最糟一年 2010方露復甦曙光