6/20 - Initial Claims

依DOL 6/25公佈之資料, 至6/20當週, 首次申領失業救濟金人數經季節調整後上升15,000人 , 達627,000人. 4週平均人數則是小幅增加500人 至617,250.

根據WSJ報導指出: "勞工部的一位分析師稱﹐6月20日當週首次申請失業救濟人數之所以意外上升並創出5月16日以來最高水平﹐部分原因在於教育服務行業的裁員規模大於預期 . "這表明﹐就業市場儘管近期已出現企穩跡象﹐但依然疲弱.

持續申領失業救濟金人數截至6/13當週持續申請失業救濟的人數增加29,000人﹐至6,738,000人﹐此前一週持續申請失業救濟人數曾大幅減少126,000人.

4週平均人數本週小幅增加500人, 目前人數較10週前的高峰減少41,500人,

因而可推測申領人數已於本次循環中達高峰.

而居高不下的持續申領人數,也代表著就業市場的疲弱

針對上週持續申領人數意外的減少126,000人, calculated risk整理了幾個對此討論之觀點:

There was plenty of discussion about the decline in continuing claims last week. A few comments:

• My view is the most useful number in the weekly claims report is the number of seasonally adjusted initial claims (with a 4-week moving average because it is so noisy). This has declined from the peak of 10 weeks ago, but is still very high. This suggests that the peak of job losses might be behind us, but also that there are still significant job losses occurring. We will probably see monthly job losses reported by the BLS until the weekly initial claims numbers declines close to 400 thousand.
  
• The continuing claims number can decline for several reasons: 1) some pickup in hiring, 2) standard unemployment benefits may be expiring, and 3) the estimate might be revised. The continued claims estimate for last week was revised up some - so that explains part of it. Also, as people move off the standard 26 week unemployment benefits, they are no longer included in continued claims (for the most part). These people are still receiving extended benefits, but that is tracked elsewhere.
  
• If we look back 26 weeks from last week, there was a huge jump in NSA initial claims (from 536 thousand to 760 thousand) or 224 thousand in one week back in December. Any of those people who are still unemployed (and many probably are) were moving off the standard unemployment benefits to extended benefits and are no longer counted in the continued claims. That probably counts for most of the decline last week. But it is also important to remember they are still receiving unemployment benefits (extended benefits).

而這也是為什麼當觀察此數字時, 會關注於4週平均申領救濟金人數之變化. 它可以避免持續申領人數,可能因為申領補助到期, 而被扣除於持續申領人數中, 然而實際上其仍未就業的可能情況.