In a clear sign that the economic winds have shifted, our recession model puts the latest probability of recession two quarters from now at 37 percent—down significantly from the 80 percent readings earlier this year. Confirmation of economic recovery has been seen in the recent improvement of the leading indicators and sales.
Economic recovery prospects have improved. The probability of recession two quarters from now has downshifted sharply over the previous quarter. As evidenced in the graph, the latest probability calculation from our model is consistent with prior economic recoveries. Our model takes a look at a very broad set of variables, and the results suggest economic recovery is likely in six months. The original model estimates were published in “Forecasting U.S. Recessions with Probit Stepwise Regression Models,” Business Economics, January 2008. Economic improvement began to show up in our model in recent months in the regional Chicago manufacturing survey. While the official recovery call will come from the National Bureau of Economic Research, our outlook is that the recovery will begin in the third quarter of this year.
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