景氣循環之時間順序

Calculated Risk blog的這一篇--Business Cycle :Temporal Order, 其引用了2007 Professor Leamer: Housing and the Business Cycle 的文章，當中討論當經濟開始衰退或復甦時，其景氣循環時間順序為何？

在該篇文章,作者以二次戰後的10次衰退期檢視GDP各組成份子在衰退前及衰退中的貢獻度.並藉此歸結出各項對景氣的反應程度．

In that paper, Leamer outlined the temporal order of a typical business cycle:

The temporal ordering of the spending weakness is: residential ivestment,consumer durables, consumer nondurables and consumer services before the recession, and then, once the recession officially commences, business spending on the short-lived assets, equipment and software, and, last, business spending on the long-lived assets, offices and factories. The ordering in the recovery is exactly the same

blog作者將之整理為如下之圖形, 並加入了失業.



房市通常領先反應經濟的衰退, 相同的在經濟復甦時亦最先反應. 只是這次的循環中, 房市可能不能成為經濟復甦的引擎．依blog作者觀點, 若新屋銷售及開工在2009年見底, 整個房市的復甦也將相當緩慢.



因而另一個觀察的項目就是個人消費支出(Personal Consumption Expenditures ; PCE ) .只是當個人增加儲蓄率以增強個人資產負債表之際, 若經濟在下半年觸底, 但PCE可能無法很快的顯著增加..但至少從該文章中我們知道要觀察什麼了.