Global Manufacturing Slump

二個主要經濟體美國與中國2月份的PMI 分別為35.8%及49%.雖然仍低於50..但或許會讓人猜想市場是否將recovery.

RGE Monitor這篇Global manufacturing slump-Too Soon to Point to Stabilization整理了較多市場的現狀:

• Manufacturing surveys reflect simultaneous contraction in manufacturing throughout the G7 and in key emerging markets like China, Brazil and Russia. Although the deterioration of manufacturing some countries (US, China) may have bottomed out, they remain deep into contraction territory in February suggesting more problems ahead and outlook continues to deteriorate in EU and Japan.
  
  
• Merrill: Industrial production has absolutely collapsed everywhere,most notably in Asia. Retail sales have been severely affected,particularly those of durable goods, such as autos, which have seen a plunge of 20%-40% yoy globally.
  
  
• Eurozone: The current Euro-area recession is far worse than 1992/93, with the Eurozone economy likely contracting by 2½% in 2009. -->Feb 20:Markit Composite PMI reached new low at 36.2. the current downturn could be very severe. Both the manufacturing and services PMI plunged to new record lows, as did employment indicators.
  
  
• U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 35.8 in Feb 2009 from 35.6 in Jan; manufacturing continued to contract in Feb.
  
  
• Chinese PMI has been in contraction for seven months and industrial production has been slowing sharply in many Asian countries as external and domestic demand weaken. Thus,slight recovery in Chinese and HK manufacturing PMI (remain deep incontraction) may point to some stabilization if not rebound.
  
  
• Asia: Japanese Industrial production in November plunged 8.1% m/m following a 3.1%m/m fall in October - the sharpest monthly contraction in industrial activity since Japan started recording monthly industrial production in the 1950s.
  
  
• India: Industrial production fell -2% y/y in Dec-08 after gaining 1.7%y/y in Nov-08, biggestdrop since 1993. Manufacturing growth declined 2.1% in Dec-08 after rising 1.7% in Nov-08
  
  
• Brazil: Dec’s PMI should show further weakness of manufacturing activity in Brazil. after fallingfrom 45.7 to 41.6, well below the 50 neutral level. The sharp deterioration of leading indicatorsin Q4’08 indicates that Q1’09 activity data will come in the negative territory.
  
  
• Russia: manufacturing PMI reflected a fifth month of contraction in February, the longest stretch since the 98 slump.