2009年8月12日 星期三

Market Graph - The road to recovery?

dshort.com 針對石油危機、科技泡沫和1930 大蕭條衰退後的復甦比較圖. 探討市場落底後之表現. 本次金融風暴自2009/3/9低點至今已反彈47%, 明顯優於1974及2002 年當時同期間的反彈. 而相較1929 Dow 48%的反彈也將追趕上. 只是接下來呢?



From dshot.com:
Here is the latest update of our bear recovery comparison. This chart is an offshoot of our Four Bad Bears. It shifts the point of alignment from the pre-bear highs to the bear bottom in the Oil Crisis and Tech Crash, the first major low in the 1929 Dow,
and the March 9th closing low for our current Financial Crisis.

As the chart illustrates, the S&P 500 lows in 1974 and 2002 marked
the beginnings of sustained recoveries. The Dow low in 1929 failed 11 months later.

Our current market is now 47% above the March 9th low. It has
significantly outperformed the 1974 and 2002 rebounds over the equivalent period, and it briefly surpassed the 48% rally in the 1929 Dow. Will it continue to show resilience?


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