市場現況及outlook報告

整理關於市場現況及展望的報告：

#Ｗachovia -Global recovery -The Global Economy: Who Gets Out of the Gate First?

重要內容:

The global economy fell off a cliff late last year as the credit crunch brought economic activity to a standstill, and most major economies appear to have contracted at a sharp rate in the first quarter as well. Although recent data suggest that the bottom has probably not been reached yet, rates of decline may be starting to slow. Eventually, however, the global economy will begin to recover. Will major economies rise from the ashes at the same time and pace, or will certain economies lead others?

In our view, China will probably be the first major economy out of the gate. China did not have many of the problems that plagued other major economies, and Chinese policymakers were quick to enact expansionary macroeconomic policies. The U.S. economy faces some formidable challenges, but it should be one of the first economies to post positive growth numbers again due to the unprecedented stimulus that has been applied. The U.K. economy, which in many respects resembles its American counterpart, should start to turn the corner as well later this year. In contrast, the Euro-zone will likely lag the United States and Great Britain due to the tepid policy response to date in continental Europe. Japan should also be one of the last major economies to emerge from the current downturn...


##BLACKROCK-The credit crisis, government action and the economic and investment outlook

government action :

*The Public-Private Investment Program

*Bank Stress Testing

*The Nationalization Question

*Fiscal Stimulus

*The Fed, Monetary Policy and Inflation


The Outlook for the Economy:

We believe the fourth quarter of 2008 andthe first quarter of 2009 will mark thelow points for economic growth...There isa prospect that we will witness the startof an economic recovery by the end of theyear, and that could lead into subpar, butpositive, growth in 2010.”

What Might Recovery Look Like?

Once the banking system has stabilized, we will be focused on identifying a floorfor consumption spending. When personal spending has stopped dropping, itshould be a sign that the broader economy is set to recover. Within the businesssector, a sustained increase in durable goods orders could signal a turnaroundand would be an important leading indicator. A decline in inventory levels alsowill be an important sign that the business sector has started to improve.

Financial Markets as an Indicator

“Higher-risk assets (such as equities)are likely to recover before the economyas a whole.”

Outlook and Opportunities in Fixed Income

“While we are in the midst of a recession,a focus on higher-quality investmentsis appropriate.”

Outlook and Opportunities in Equities

“Healthcare remains the most attractivedefensive sector. Our preferred cyclicalsector is energy. From a growthperspective, we are focused on technology.”


###RGE Monitor-2009 Global Economic outlook(Q1 update)