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Summary of current state (as of 8/31/2009)
Market indicators — Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX remained about the same, increasing from 25.92 to 26.01, while OAS continued to inch closer to its typical range. While Interest Rates narrowed, it remains significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. In keeping with the theme, the U.S. equity markets returned about 0% for the month of August (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).
Economic indicators — Since these indicators tend to look backwards, most continue to show signs of weakness. However, these metrics continue to show incremental improvement. NF PAY shows that the job market remains weak, though job losses were the fewest in the past year. PCE – a measure of consumer spending – increased to its highest level since February. The core PCE price index – inflation excluding food and energy – has been steadily declining since February, which could be a sign that the recovery will not be swift.
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