Fed Chief Says Recession Is ‘Very Likely Over’

美國Fed主席Bernake 在布魯金斯研究所一個論壇上談到：

就經濟數據上判斷，美國的經濟衰退很可能已經結束。只是，即使「從技術角度來說，現在經濟衰退很可能已結束。」然而由於許多人仍會覺得他們的工作保障和就業狀態不如自己的預期，因而在一段時間內，經濟仍會感覺是非常疲弱的。

至於經濟在今年接下來的期間及明年，預期成長都將是緩慢，主要受限於信貸市場仍緊縮、消費者信心尚未恢復，這些因素都將使得經濟發展受阻。

而在討論衰退結束的可能時，另一個受觀注的議題：財政政策退場時程的安排。Bernake 與包含財政部長蓋特納在內的政府官員都有共識的認為，過早的財政注資退出將可能重演1930年代經濟再次陷入衰退的惡夢，他們已經開始對此展開討論。

只是也有另一派的人提出警告，一旦過晚的退出，將可能使得物價明顯上升，因而導致破壞性的通膨發生。


From the NY Times:

The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Tuesday that it was “very likely” that the recession had ended although he cautioned that it could be months before unemployment rates dropped significantly.

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was,” Mr. Bernanke said in response to a question about unemployment trends. “That’s a challenge for us and all policy makers going forward.”

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Mr. Bernanke said the consensus of economic forecasters was for moderate economic growth for the remainder of this year and next, particularly as credit markets thaw, consumer confidence takes time to heal and the federal government begins to unwind spending and lending programs intended to mend the economy.

“The general view of forecasters is that growth in 2010 will be moderate, less than you might expect given the depth of the recession,” Mr. Bernanke said, because of several issues, including continuing financial and credit problems, deleveraging by households and the need to end the economic stimulus programs. All these elements will “make the 2010 recovery moderate, in particular not much faster than the underlying growth rate of the economy,” he added.
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